Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Paramount+
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Nacional Montevideo		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.8
	1.85	3.35	4.25	Watch
	1.89	3.39	4.47
	1.87	3.4	4.34	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4
	1.9	3.48	4.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.96)	3.37 ↑ (3.28)	4.25 ↑ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
50%

Draw
27.9%

Universitario de Deportes
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

28.8%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28.6%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Nacional Montevideo - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nacional Montevideo will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 32. Viera T. 21. Candido C. 30. Barcia B. 10. dos Santos A. 23. Rodriguez L. 19. De Los Santos J. 11. Silvera M. 9. Gomez M.	25. Vargas M. (G) 4. Santamaria A. 3. Riveros W. 2. Fara C. 24. Polo A. (C) 16. Perez Guedes M. 8. Fertoli H. 17. Concha J. 27. Carabali J. 30. Alzugaray L. 20. Valera A.
Substitutes
6. Boggio L. 15. Calione P. 20. Carneiro G. 14. Lodeiro N. 7. Lopez N. 31. Martinez R. 18. Nunez P. 5. Pintado J. 77. Rodriguez N. 2. Rogel A. 25. Suarez I. (G) 27. Veron T.	26. Ancajima H. 6. Castillo J. 29. Corzo A. 5. Di Benedetto M. 19. Flores E. 90. Gassama S. 33. Inga C. 99. Miguel Silveira 23. Murrugarra J. 77. Reyna B. 14. Reyna P. 1. Romero D. (G)
Coaches
Bava J.	Cuper H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Rodriguez L. ↓, Boggio L. ↑,
41', Fara C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ancheta E. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
70', Silvera M. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
70', De Los Santos J. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
81', Alzugaray L. ↓, Flores E. ↑,
81', Polo A. ↓, Ancajima H. ↑,
81', Concha J. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
84', Barcia B. ↓, Veron T. ↑,
86', Bava J. 🟨,
87', Fertoli H. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
90+3', Valera A. ↓, Gassama S. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.

In this match, Nacional is the team to beat.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Calcaterra H. (Injury) Valera A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLLL
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
15.05.26	Universitario de Deportes - Atlético Grau	0:1 ✺
11.05.26	Sport Boys - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Coquimbo Unido - Universitario de Deportes	2:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - Universitario de Deportes	1:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2
Copa Bandes
14.01.15	Nacional Montevideo - Universitario de Deportes	2:1

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