Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	10:30	beIN Connect
Belarus	03:30	Okko Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	21:30	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect
Chile	20:30	Disney+
Colombia	19:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	04:30	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	07:30	Mola TV
Israel	03:30	Sport 2
Italy	02:30	Como TV
Kosovo	02:30	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	08:30	Mola
Mexico	18:30	Disney+
New Zealand	12:30	beIN Connect
Peru	19:30	Disney+
Portugal	01:30	Sport TV1
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	02:30	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN 5 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	02:30	LaLiga+
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, Inter


	Universitario de Deportes		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	5.5	2.75	1.95	Watch
	4.6	3.1	1.88
	5.4	2.88	1.95	Watch
	5.4	2.88	1.97
	34.40	14.25	1.04	Watch
	4.6	3	1.85
	5.41	2.9	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.33 ↑ (4.37)	4.54 ↑ (3.07)	1.8 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
12.1%

Draw
24.9%

Palmeiras
62.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.7%

30.9%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

32.4%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universitario de Deportes's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universitario de Deportes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	38.9%	50%

Universitario de Deportes - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Uni de Deportes (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni de Deportes (votes: 1 - 25%). Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): -1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 24. Polo A. 29. Corzo A. (C) 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 33. Inga C. 17. Concha J. 18. Urena R. 16. Perez M. 20. Valera A. 19. Flores E.	21. Weverton (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 13. Micael 22. Piquerez J. 32. Martinez E. 30. Lucas Evangelista 42. Lopez J. 18. Mauricio 19. Sosa R. 9. Vitor Roque
Substitutes
26. Ancajima H. 10. Calcaterra H. 12. Calderon A. (G) 27. Carabali J. 55. Castillo J. 8. Costa G. 15. Diego Churin 23. Murrugarra J. 11. Rivera J. 40. Santamaria A. 25. Vargas M. (G) 7. Velez J.	40. Allan 56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 5. Moreno A. 26. Murilo 51. Sa L. F. (G) 39. Thalys 17. Torres F.
Coaches
Fossati J.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
6', Di Benedetto M. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Gomez G. (Pen),
12', 0 - 2, Lopez J. ⚽, Vitor Roque (A),
16', Polo A. 🟨,
30', 0 - 3, Vitor Roque ⚽, Piquerez J. (A),
45+2', Mauricio 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Urena R. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
53', Riveros W. 🟥,
57', Perez M. ↓, Carabali J. ↑,
62', Sosa R. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
62', Mauricio ↓, Torres F. ↑,
66', Valera A. ↓, Diego Churin ↑,
66', Concha J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
73', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
75', 0 - 4, Lopez J. ⚽,
78', Flores E. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
80', Lopez J. ↓, Allan ↑,
80', Vitor Roque ↓, Luighi ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Uni de Deportes is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Palmeiras has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Fuchs (Hamstring Injury) Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Uni de Deportes: Diego Churin (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 1:4.5).

Including home match between the teams, Uni de Deportes won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
09.08.25	Universitario de Deportes - Sport Boys	1:0 ✺
05.08.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universitario de Deportes	0:2 ✺
31.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
26.07.25	Cienciano - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
18.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWTW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Palmeiras	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
27.05.21	Palmeiras - Universitario de Deportes	6:0
21.04.21	Universitario de Deportes - Palmeiras	2:3

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