Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 5 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Heraclio Tapia (Huánuco)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.4	1.8	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.8	Watch
	5.1	3.75	1.68	Watch
	4.33	3.45	1.81
	4.21	3.22	1.92	Watch
	4	3.4	1.85
	5.1	3.8	1.72	Watch
	6.66	4	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↓ (6.66)	3.53 ↓ (4)	1.75 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
19.9%

Draw
26.6%

Universitario de Deportes
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.7%

22.8%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

21.8%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Universidad de Huánuco's performance.

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Universitario de Deportes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Universidad de Huánuco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Universitario de Deportes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alianza Universidad will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni de Deportes: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni de Deportes (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Alianza Universidad (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Universidad (votes: 1 - 25%). Uni de Deportes (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ynamine P. (G) 3. Ampuero A. 33. Otavio Gut 19. Mendieta J. 7. Gomez A. 20. Canela Torres J. J. 5. Ascues C. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O. 10. Duran J. 8. Lliuya M. 17. Mena Y. (C)	25. Vargas M. (G) 29. Corzo A. (C) 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 24. Polo A. 27. Carabali J. 16. Perez M. 18. Urena R. 17. Concha J. 11. Rivera J. 20. Valera A.
Substitutes
23. Barco J. 22. Campodonico R. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 66. Fuentes P. 14. Guevara B. 9. Martinez D. 28. Perleche A. 24. Saffadi D. 38. Sernaque J.	10. Calcaterra H. 12. Calderon A. (G) 6. Castillo J. 8. Costa G. 33. Inga C. 23. Murrugarra J. 14. Reyna P. 4. Santamaria A. 7. Velez J.
Coaches
Mosquera R.	Fossati J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Rivera J. ⚽, Concha J. (A),
45+6', Valera A. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mendieta J. ↓, Perleche A. ↑,
58', Duran J. ↓, Campodonico R. ↑,
63', Concha J. ↓, Calcaterra H. ↑,
63', Carabali J. ↓, Inga C. ↑,
65', Vasquez Ortega E. O. ↓, Barco J. ↑,
75', Perez M. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
84', Barco J. 🟥,
87', Rivera J. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
87', Valera A. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
87', Ampuero A. ↓, Sernaque J. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 2, Velez J. ⚽, Costa G. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Universidad won 0.

Alianza Universidad has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Uni de Deportes is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Uni de Deportes is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Riveros W. (Surgery)

There are questionable in Alianza Universidad: Gomez R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Uni de Deportes: Diego Churin (Muscle Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Alianza Universidad won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:14. (average 0.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Universidad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
31.07.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:3 ✺
26.07.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Ayacucho	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:0 ✺
13.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Alianza Atlético	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLLLW
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
31.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
26.07.25	Cienciano - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
18.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
12.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Los Chankas	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
02.03.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	4:0
23.09.21	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universitario de Deportes	0:4
31.10.20	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universitario de Deportes	0:1
07.09.20	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:2
08.09.19	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universitario de Deportes	0:1
23.03.19	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:1

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