Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Lozano S. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Universitario de Deportes		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.50	4.00	Watch
	1.82	3.25	3.75
	1.78	3.65	4.10	Watch
	1.90	3.46	4.13
	1.83	3.61	4.17	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.25
	1.86	3.52	4.02	Watch
	1.85	3.30	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.76)	3.44 ↓ (3.74)	4.03 ↓ (4.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
50.2%

Draw
26.9%

Sporting Cristal
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

25%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

24.4%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Sporting Cristal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Universitario de Deportes - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: Universitario de Deportes will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Romero D. (G) 2. Fara C. 4. Santamaria A. 5. Di Benedetto M. 24. Polo A. (C) 28. Quiroz A. 15. Requena J. 17. Concha J. 33. Inga C. 18. Lapadula G. 20. Valera A.	1. Enriquez D. (G) 18. Gonzalez J. 20. Araujo M. 5. Lutiger R. 32. Diaz L. 25. Tavara M. 19. Yotun Y. (C) 7. Gonzalez S. 27. Gabriel 90. Cristiano 29. Barcos H.
Substitutes
30. Alzugaray L. 10. Calcaterra H. 29. Corzo A. 8. Fertoli H. 21. Guivin Tanta J. 23. Murrugarra J. 11. Rivera J. 3. Riveros W. 25. Vargas M. (G)	11. Avila I. 33. Bautista C. (G) 21. Cabellos C. 23. Castro M. 77. Cuesta J. 22. Hoyos M. 16. Iberico L. 8. Sosa L. 26. Wisdom I.
Coaches
Cuper H.	Mosquera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Fara C. 🟨,
30', Yotun Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Sosa L. ↑,
65', Gabriel ↓, Cuesta J. ↑,
71', Santamaria A. ↓, Riveros W. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Lapadula G. ⚽, Valera A. (A),
75', Barcos H. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
76', Diaz L. ↓, Cabellos C. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Yotun Y. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Concha J. ↓, Alzugaray L. ↑,
83', Requena J. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
89', Quiroz A. 🟨,
90+1', Cabellos C. 🟨,
90+5', Gonzalez S. ↓, Castro M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 3.

Uni de Deportes is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sporting Cristal has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Uni de Deportes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Uni de Deportes is the team to beat.

There will not play in Sporting Cristal: Gonzales C. (Knee Injury) Solis R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting Cristal: Cuesta J. (Foot Injury)

We predict that Uni de Deportes will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 5 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:21. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni de Deportes won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. de Deportes	11	6	3	2	21:18	3	21
4	Sporting Cristal	10	6	1	3	20:10	10	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
02.08.26	Cienciano - Universitario de Deportes	2:0 ✺
24.07.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cusco	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Universitario de Deportes - Millonarios	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	Universitario de Deportes - Sport Boys	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWW?
- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
02.08.26	Sporting Cristal - Juan Pablo II College	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.07.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
25.07.26	FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.07.26	Sporting Cristal - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
17.07.26	Sporting Cristal - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
21.02.26	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	2:2
23.10.25	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	0:1
22.05.25	Universitario de Deportes - Sporting Cristal	2:0
23.10.24	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	2:1
12.05.24	Universitario de Deportes - Sporting Cristal	4:1
16.09.23	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	0:0
24.04.23	Universitario de Deportes - Sporting Cristal	2:0

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