Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nazca)


	Santos		San Marcos

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.5
	1.88	3.1	3.85
	1.89	3.1	3.93
	1.22	5.29	15.48	Watch
	1.9	3.18	3.88
	2.24	3.23	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.24)	3.5 ↑ (3.23)	5.56 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
53.8%

Draw
28.4%

San Marcos
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

27.6%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

26.1%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.

San Marcos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Marcos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos than the current prediction. (+16.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Marcos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Santos - San Marcos Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 11 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santos will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Andia R. (C) 29. Cavero G. 22. Colon S. 27. Cuneo O. 10. Deza J. 4. Estacio M. 3. Falcon L. 19. Mena Y. 8. Munoz J. 6. Velasco S.	1. Stein A. (G) 29. Aragon F. 24. Castro F. 26. Garcia A. 22. Moyano D. 28. Paz L. 8. Peral P. (C) 25. Raffo R. 2. Reyes J. 7. Soto J. 16. Ventura F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Colon S. ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, Colon S. ⚽,
44', Cuneo O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Moyano D. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
46', Garcia A. ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
46', Stein A. ↓, Quincho J. ↑,
58', Castro F. 🟨,
58', 🟨,
61', Mena Y. ↓, Curiel M. ↑,
66', Deza J. ↓, Condena A. ↑,
70', 🟨,
71', Castro F. ↓, Rivera L. ↑,
76', Paz L. 🟨,
76', Munoz J. 🟨,
77', Colon S. ↓, Farias J. ↑,
77', Cuneo O. ↓, Carranza T. ↑,
77', Munoz J. ↓, Garcia C. ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Farias J. ⚽,
89', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Santos have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

San Marcos has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos de Nasca
Peruvian Liga 2
03.08.25	ADA Jaén - Santos	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
06.07.25	Santos - Cantolao	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Universidad San Martín - Santos	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Santos	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLL
- FC San Marcos
Peruvian Liga 2
01.08.25	San Marcos - Comerciantes Belén	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	ADA Jaén - San Marcos	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	San Marcos - Carlos A. Mannucci	0:1 ✺
20.06.25	Cajamarca - San Marcos	1:0 ✺
13.06.25	San Marcos - ADA Jaén	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLLL

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