Match Info

FNL - Round 7

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Yekaterinburg Arena (Yekaterinburg)

Referee: Prokopov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	MATCH! Planeta, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Ural		Fakel

	1	X	2
	2.24	2.89	4.38
	2.2	2.81	4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.07)	2.85 ↓ (2.95)	4.19 ↓ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ural
43.3%

Draw
33.7%

Fakel
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

32.2%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

36.3%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ural has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ural than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ural, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Ural - Fakel Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Selikhov A. (G) 13. Akbashev R. 4. Bardachev M. 2. Begic S. (C) 37. Bondarev V. 44. Malkevich V. 34. Margasov T. 42. Mosin E. 35. Prishchepa D. 6. Sungatulin F. 50. Voronov M.	1. Frolkin D. (G) 10. Alshin I. 21. Gongadze G. 27. Magkeev S. 97. Magomedov B. 11. Motpan N. 52. Netfullin R. 19. Pusi B. 18. Simonov K. 20. Yurganov I. 44. Zhuravlev Y.
Substitutes
5. Ayupov T. 24. Filipenko E. 97. Ishkov I. 16. Italo 7. Kashtanov A. 22. Leo Cordeiro 46. Mamin A. 20. Markov E. 18. Morozov N. 1. Oparin M. (G) 10. Sekulic M. 31. Sergeev M. M.	70. Abdokov N. 8. Bagamaev A. 77. Bagatelia L. . Cherov V. 5. Gabaraev A. 95. Gaponov I. 99. Giorgobiani N. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 9. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Shalimov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Alshin I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Simonov K. ↓, Bagamaev A. ↑,
57', Gongadze G. ↓, Uridia M. ↑,
58', Magomedov B. ↓, Cherov V. ↑,
64', Malkevich V. ↓, Ishkov I. ↑,
64', Voronov M. ↓, Sekulic M. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Mosin E. ⚽,
67', Motpan N. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
74', Alshin I. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
77', 🟨,
81', Magkeev S. 🟨,
81', Bondarev V. ↓, Leo Cordeiro ↑,
85', Sungatulin F. ↓, Ayupov T. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Mosin E. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Ural is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fakel is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Ural is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ural won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ural won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Ural - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.85%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Ural
Russian FNL
25.08.25	Ural - Volga Ulyanovsk	4:0 ✺
18.08.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ural	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Ural	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Ural - Rodina Moscow	2:1 ✺
28.07.25	Ural - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWWW
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
24.08.25	Fakel - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Fakel	0:1 ✺
11.08.25	KAMAZ - Fakel	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Fakel - Sokol Saratov	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Fakel - Ufa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
12.05.24	Fakel - Ural	0:0
17.09.23	Ural - Fakel	0:0
12.11.22	Ural - Fakel	2:0
12.08.22	Fakel - Ural	0:0
Russian FNL Cup
14.02.20	Fakel - Ural	2:1

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