Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 5

Date: 7 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Miramar Misiones		Oriental de La Paz

	1	X	2
	2.80	2.85	2.37
	2.92	2.78	2.48
	3.04	2.9	2.52
	2.79	2.89	2.70	Watch
	2.9	2.7	2.45
	2.96	2.81	2.45
	2.38	3.15	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.38)	2.87 ↓ (3.15)	2.52 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miramar Misiones
32.2%

Draw
31.7%

Oriental de La Paz
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.5%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miramar Misiones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Miramar Misiones's form might have worsened.

Oriental de La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Miramar Misiones, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oriental de La Paz than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Miramar Misiones - Oriental de La Paz Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Miramar Misiones will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Oriental will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, de Freitas A. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Rigoleto M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 2, Nunez B. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 2, Abatte B. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 10).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Miramar Misiones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Miramar Misiones won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Miramar Misiones won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	29:22	7	32
12	Miramar	21	6	7	8	23:26	-3	25

Last Results with these Odds

Oriental de La Paz - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.84%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Segunda Division
30.05.26	Colón Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	1:3 ✺
25.05.26	Miramar Misiones - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
17.05.26	Rentistas - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
29.04.26	Rentistas - Miramar Misiones	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTLTT
- Oriental de La Paz
Uruguayan Segunda Division
31.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - Tacuarembó	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Plaza Colonia - Oriental de La Paz	3:1 ✺
17.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - La Luz	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
11.04.26	Oriental de La Paz - Miramar Misiones	2:1
11.11.23	Miramar Misiones - Oriental de La Paz	1:0
24.06.23	Oriental de La Paz - Miramar Misiones	1:3

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