Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)

Referee: Fesnic H. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4, VRT Canvas
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Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Germany	RTL+
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Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
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Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Disney+
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
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United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 7, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	VIX App


	Utrecht		Lyon

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.7
	2.78	3.25	2.72
	2.77	3.27	2.74
	3.33	3.66	2.06	Watch
	2.94	3.27	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (3.33)	3.33 ↓ (3.66)	2.56 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
33.3%

Draw
29%

Lyon
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

25.8%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

25.5%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lyon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Utrecht that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lyon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	6.7%	71.1%

Utrecht - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Utrecht will win (votes: 10 - 22.7%). Lyon will win (votes: 31 - 70.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 6.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 57% – 84%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 7 - 28%). Lyon (votes: 18 - 72%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Lyon (1.47) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.5 - Lyon (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Lyon (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lyon (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 8 - 25.8%). Lyon (votes: 23 - 74.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (G) 2. Horemans S. 3. van der Hoorn M. 24. Viergever N. (C) 16. El Karouani S. 23. Vesterlund N. 21. Zechiel G. 27. Engwanda A. 22. Rodriguez M. 91. Haller S. 55. Murkin D.	1. Greif D. (G) 21. Kluivert R. 22. Clinton Mata 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. (C) 39. de Carvalho M. 23. Morton T. 7. Karabec A. 10. Sulc P. 11. Fofana M. 20. Satriano M.
Substitutes
15. Blake A. 8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 40. Didden M. 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 14. Iqbal Z. 26. Jonathans M. 9. Min D. 46. van Ommeren J.	41. Barisic T. 50. Diarra L. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 32. Gomes A. 62. Konan Y. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 44. Merah K. 29. Molebe E. 17. Moreira A. 6. Tessmann T.
Coaches
Jans R.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Jans R. 🟨,
31', Fonseca P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Sulc P. 🟨,
65', Tagliafico N. ↓, Maitland-Niles A. ↑,
65', Fofana M. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
65', Karabec A. ↓, Ghezzal R. ↑,
65', Morton T. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
67', Clinton Mata 🟨,
75', 0 - 1, Tessmann T. ⚽, Ghezzal R. (A),
75', Tessmann T. 🟨,
80', Maitland-Niles A. 🟨,
80', Vesterlund N. ↓, Min D. ↑,
80', Murkin D. ↓, Blake A. ↑,
84', Engwanda A. 🟨,
89', Viergever N. ↓, Eerdhuijzen M. ↑,
90+3', Sulc P. ↓, Merah K. ↑,
90+5', El Karouani S. 🟨,

Preview

Utrecht has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lyon is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Utrecht: Cathline Y. (Inactive) Demircan E. (Injury) El Arguioui R. (Knee Injury) Finnsson K. (Inactive) Jensen V. (Muscle Injury) Ohio N. (Inactive) de Wit D. (Foot Injury) van den Berg D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lyon: Abner Vinicius (Groin Injury) Descamps R. (Wrist Injury) Mangala O. (Knee Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Tolisso C. (Red Card)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.25	Fortuna Sittard - Utrecht	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Utrecht - Groningen	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Zwolle - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Utrecht - Zrinjski Mostar	0:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	Utrecht - Excelsior	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWTW
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
19.09.25	Lyon - Angers	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Rennes - Lyon	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Lyon - Metz	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Lens - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWW

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