Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)

Referee: Nagtegaal M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Utrecht		Groningen

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.78	3.8	4.2
	1.72	3.7	4.9
	1.76	4.09	4.43
	2.17	2.70	4.32	Watch
	1.73	3.75	4.33
	1.74	3.79	4.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.73)	3.65 ↓ (4.1)	4.62 ↑ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
53.1%

Draw
26.2%

Groningen
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.3%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

22.5%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Groningen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.4%	5.6%	0%

Utrecht - Groningen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Utrecht will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Utrecht will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (G) 2. Horemans S. 3. van der Hoorn M. 24. Viergever N. (C) 16. El Karouani S. 6. van den Berg D. 27. Engwanda A. 21. Zechiel G. 22. Rodriguez M. 9. Min D. 15. Blake A.	1. Vaessen E. (G) 5. Rente M. 3. Blokzijl T. 4. Janse D. 43. Peersman M. 8. de Jonge T. 6. Resink S. (C) 17. van der Werff D. 10. Taha Y. 14. Schreuders J. 26. van Bergen T.
Substitutes
8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 11. Demircan E. 40. Didden M. 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 5. Finnsson K. 91. Haller S. 14. Iqbal Z. 26. Jonathans M. 55. Murkin D. 46. van Ommeren J. 23. Vesterlund N.	22. Bouland S. 7. Hernes T. 69. Hoekstra M. 21. Jurjus H. (G) 48. Kelder R. 18. Land T. 27. Mendes R. 16. Mercera T. 2. Prins W. 20. Seuntjens M. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 19. Zawada O.
Coaches
Jans R.	Lukkien D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Peersman M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Barkas V. ↓, Brouwer M. ↑,
46', van den Berg D. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
55', Taha Y. 🟨,
70', 0 - 1, Rente M. ⚽, Resink S. (A),
76', Viergever N. ↓, Murkin D. ↑,
76', Blake A. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
76', Rodriguez M. ↓, Bozdogan C. ↑,
77', van der Werff D. ↓, Land T. ↑,
80', Rente M. ↓, Mercera T. ↑,
86', Taha Y. ↓, Zawada O. ↑,
88', Zawada O. 🟨,
90+2', Resink S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 4.

Utrecht is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Groningen has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Groningen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Utrecht is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Utrecht: Cathline Y. (Inactive) El Arguioui R. (Knee Injury) Jensen V. (Thigh Injury) de Wit D. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Groningen: Emeran N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Utrecht: Didden M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Utrecht won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.2:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
31.08.25	Zwolle - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Utrecht - Zrinjski Mostar	0:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	Utrecht - Excelsior	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.08.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWWL
- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
29.08.25	Groningen - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
23.08.25	PSV Eindhoven - Groningen	4:2 ✺
16.08.25	Groningen - Heerenveen	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Groningen - NEC Nijmegen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.04.25	Utrecht - Groningen	3:1
20.10.24	Groningen - Utrecht	0:1
07.04.23	Groningen - Utrecht	1:2
Club Friendly
23.12.22	Utrecht - Groningen	0:3
Dutch Eredivisie
06.11.22	Utrecht - Groningen	2:1
20.03.22	Utrecht - Groningen	1:3
21.08.21	Groningen - Utrecht	0:0

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