Match Info

SPAIN: COPA DEL REY - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 12 November 2022, Saturday


	Utrera		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.8
	2.5	3.1	2.8
	2.43	3.1	2.85
	2.42	3.3	2.72
	2.55	3	3	Watch
	2.46	2.98	3.05	Watch
	2.43	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (3.25)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	2.87 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrera
37.7%

Draw
30%

Ceuta
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

28.7%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

25.9%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Utrera's performance.

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ceuta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrera than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Utrera that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ceuta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	40%	30%

Utrera - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Utrera will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches Utrera is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ceuta has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Utrera won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Utrera won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Utrera
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
06.11.22	San Roque de Lepe - Utrera	3:0 ✺
30.10.22	Utrera - Racing Cartagena MM	2:1 ✺
23.10.22	Yeclano Deportivo - Utrera	2:1 ✺
16.10.22	Utrera - Cartagena B	3:2 ✺
09.10.22	UCAM Murcia - Utrera	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 LWLWT
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.11.22	Ceuta - Córdoba	1:2 ✺
30.10.22	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ceuta	1:0 ✺
23.10.22	Ceuta - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
16.10.22	Ceuta - Ferrol	0:2 ✺
09.10.22	Badajoz - Ceuta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
21.08.22	Utrera - Ceuta	0:2
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
14.09.19	Utrera - Ceuta	1:3
06.12.18	Utrera - Ceuta	1:1

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