Match Info

ARGENTINA: COPA DE LA LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 5

Date: 20 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Trucco S. (Arg)


	Vélez Sársfield		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	5	Watch
	1.78	3.3	5	Watch
	1.81	3.34	5.4
	1.75	3.35	5.35	Watch
	1.77	3.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.78)	3.34 ↓ (3.43)	5.15 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
53.3%

Draw
28.3%

Arsenal Sarandí
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

27.3%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

26.9%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Vélez Sársfield - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gomez G. (G) 24. Guidara T. 17. Giannetti L. (C) 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 20. Pizzini F. 21. Mendez J. 6. Gordillo Y. 22. Aquino C. 18. Castro S. 19. Osorio A.	23. Medina A. (C) 11. Brochero L. 25. Breitenbruch N. 4. Chimino C. 13. Pombo J. 5. Sporle A. 8. Rivero B. 18. Muscia G. 22. Guzman L. 9. Londono F. 28. Moreira L.
Substitutes
10. Bou W. 9. Braian Romero 28. Brizuela M. 33. Cabrera E. 35. Caseres S. 27. Fernandez T. 7. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 8. Garayalde N. 42. Garzon L. (G) 29. Jara L. 14. Lobato L. 11. Prestianni G.	19. Aguirre N. 37. Alvarez A. 36. Amarilla A. 31. Cabrera I. 30. Cardozo F. 27. Cejas J. 2. Gariglio I. 24. Lucero D. 7. Pons F. 1. Sultani T. (G) 15. Vega F. 20. Viveros E.
Coaches
Mendez S.	Vilar F.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 7 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vélez won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Vélez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Vélez is a favorite.

There will not play in Arsenal Sarandí: Centurion M. (Injury) Lopez E. (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Vélez won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Vélez won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
13.09.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
02.09.23	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	2:0 ✺
27.08.23	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Vélez Sársfield - Barracas Central	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.23	Huracán Buenos Aires - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWLWL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
17.09.23	River Plate - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
04.09.23	Barracas Central - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
25.08.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Argentinos Juniors	3:2 ✺
20.08.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Instituto Córdoba	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Colón	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.06.23	Vélez Sársfield - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0
11.09.22	Arsenal Sarandí - Vélez Sársfield	2:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
11.03.22	Arsenal Sarandí - Vélez Sársfield	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.10.21	Vélez Sársfield - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0
23.02.20	Arsenal Sarandí - Vélez Sársfield	0:4
18.03.18	Arsenal Sarandí - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
18.12.16	Arsenal Sarandí - Vélez Sársfield	2:1

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