Match Info

ARGENTINA: COPA DE LA LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 1

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)


	Vélez Sársfield		Barracas Central

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.6
	2.2	2.85	3.7
	2.2	3.05	3.8
	2.22	2.94	4.1
	2.17	2.99	3.82
	2.1	2.95	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.33)	2.95 ↓ (3.24)	3.83 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
43.3%

Draw
32%

Barracas Central
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

27.9%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Barracas Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barracas Central might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barracas Central than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barracas Central could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Vélez Sársfield - Barracas Central Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Burian L. (G) 4. Garcia J. 17. Giannetti L. (C) 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 21. Mendez J. 7. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 11. Prestianni G. 10. Bou W. 20. Pizzini F. 9. Braian Romero	1. Desabato A. (G) 4. Peinipil M. 2. Capraro N. 16. Alvarez F. 14. Diaz J. 6. Insua R. 33. Mater F. 10. Tapia I. 19. Arce C. 21. Calderara B. 29. Sepulveda B.
Substitutes
22. Aquino C. 28. Brizuela M. 33. Cabrera E. 18. Castro S. 27. Fernandez T. 8. Garayalde N. 42. Garzon L. 24. Guidara T. 29. Jara L. 14. Lobato L. 32. Ordonez C. 19. Osorio A.	28. Benitez M. 7. Colitto L. 9. Dominguez Ansorena A. 17. Frias F. 8. Laba M. 15. Prado A. 79. Puig M. 26. Rodriguez M. 34. Serrizuela J. P. 23. Susvielles J. 3. Tolosa F. 22. Villar G. (G)
Coaches
Mendez S.	Rondina S.

Preview

Recent matches Vélez is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Barracas Central is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vélez will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vélez: Caseres S. (Injury) Garayalde N. (Injury) Gomez G. (Injury)

There will not play in Barracas Central: Lopez L. (Injury) Prado A. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Vélez won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Vélez won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.23	Huracán Buenos Aires - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
24.07.23	Vélez Sársfield - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
20.07.23	San Martín de San Juan - Vélez Sársfield	3:2 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.07.23	Sarmiento de Junín - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
09.07.23	Vélez Sársfield - Godoy Cruz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLTT
- Barracas Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.23	Lanús - Barracas Central	2:0 ✺
25.07.23	Barracas Central - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
20.07.23	Barracas Central - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.07.23	Tigre - Barracas Central	0:1 ✺
10.07.23	Barracas Central - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.04.23	Vélez Sársfield - Barracas Central	0:0
25.09.22	Vélez Sársfield - Barracas Central	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
23.04.22	Barracas Central - Vélez Sársfield	1:1

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