Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Shonan Bellmare

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.25	2.4	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.3
	2.9	3.3	2.38	Watch
	2.99	3.32	2.33	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.4
	2.92	3.32	2.4	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.17)	3.24 ↓ (3.33)	2.37 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
32.4%

Draw
28.6%

Shonan Bellmare
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

28.2%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

27.9%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

V Varen Nagasaki - Shonan Bellmare Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Harada G. (G) 28. Nanamure A. 29. Arai I. 48. Teruyama H. 17. Takahata K. 34. Matsumoto T. 22. Nishimura R. 14. Nagura T. 36. Aoki S. 9. Juanma Delgado (C) 19. Sawada T.	99. Kamifukumoto N. (G) 22. Oiwa K. 32. Matsumura S. 4. Tachi K. 8. Ono K. 18. Ikeda M. 14. Barada A. 33. Takahashi N. 77. Ishii H. 9. Oda Y. 27. Luiz Phellype
Substitutes
32. Diop S. 4. Dudu Giusti 7. Marcos Guilherme 8. Masuyama A. 10. Matheus Jesus 1. Tomizawa M. (G) 24. Yamada R. 18. Yamasaki R. 23. Yoneda S.	50. Fujii T. 3. Hata T. 16. Nemoto R. 25. Okuno H. 31. Sanada K. (G) 10. Suzuki A. 5. Suzuki J. 37. Suzuki Y.
Coaches
Shimotaira T.	Yamaguchi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Oiwa K. 🟨,
22', Matsumoto T. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Luiz Phellype ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Nishimura R. 🟨,
57', Luiz Phellype ↓, Suzuki A. ↑,
58', Tachi K. 🟨,
59', Nishimura R. ↓, Marcos Guilherme ↑,
59', Aoki S. ↓, Masuyama A. ↑,
61', Juanma Delgado 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Nanamure A. ⚽,
66', Matsumura S. ↓, Hata T. ↑,
66', Takahashi N. ↓, Okuno H. ↑,
68', Sawada T. ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
68', Nanamure A. ↓, Yoneda S. ↑,
85', Nagura T. ↓, Yamada R. ↑,
88', Oda Y. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
88', Ishii H. ↓, Suzuki J. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
103', 1 - 2, Suzuki A. ⚽,
106', Matsumoto T. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
106', Barada A. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Shonan Bellmare could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 10:19 (average 0.9:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:10 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
06.04.25	Imabari - V-Varen Nagasaki	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Fujieda MYFC - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:4 ET ✺
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Blaublitz Akita	5:1 ✺
15.03.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokushima Vortis	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWW
- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
06.04.25	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Shonan Bellmare	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Shonan Bellmare	3:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Shonan Bellmare	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
16.03.25	Shonan Bellmare - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J League Cup
08.05.19	Shonan Bellmare - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0
06.03.19	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shonan Bellmare	2:1
Japan J1 League
31.08.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shonan Bellmare	1:3
Japan Emperors Cup
11.07.18	Shonan Bellmare - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 penalties
Japan J League Cup
16.05.18	Shonan Bellmare - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
14.03.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shonan Bellmare	2:1
Japan J1 League
24.02.18	Shonan Bellmare - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1

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