Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 22

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	VPS Vaasa		Lahti

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.40	3.60
	1.88	3.45	3.95	Watch
	1.94	3.72	4.1
	1.84	3.82	4.05	Watch
	1.88	3.65	4.05
	1.87	3.67	3.82	Watch
	1.86	3.5	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.15)	3.6 ↑ (3.52)	3.87 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
49.7%

Draw
26%

Lahti
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

26.5%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

26%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in VPS Vaasa's performance.

Lahti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lahti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with VPS Vaasa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lahti than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lahti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

VPS Vaasa - Lahti Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. VPS will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Lahti will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for VPS: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lahti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - VPS (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. VPS (votes: 1 - 50%). Lahti (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (G) 23. Niemi M. 6. Okereke E. 19. Haukioja M. (C) 13. Ogunniyi O. 8. Lima P. 2. Mane L. 7. Turfkruier J. 34. Raisanen A. 14. Lindholm S. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K.	31. Maukonen O. (G) 27. Yapi R. 5. Gianini Dantas N. (C) 28. Kabashi A. 6. Vehkonen V. 8. Montiel C. 18. Cassubie Y. 14. Andersson E. 77. Sarr M. 9. Lindholm A. 11. Martim Augusto
Substitutes
21. Adu-Boahen A. 26. Forsbacka R. 9. Holmelund C. 20. Odhiambo X. 25. Salomaa H. 3. Simpson R. 17. Terrnava D. 30. Vahtera J. 12. Vayrynen L. (G)	17. Belabid A. 12. Hakala A. (G) 25. Inkinen T. 10. Koskinen O. 20. Ojanen J. 41. Paalanen A.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Pereira G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Lindholm A. ⚽, Martim Augusto (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Raisanen A. ↓, Odhiambo X. ↑,
67', Lindholm S. ↓, Salomaa H. ↑,
67', Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↓, Vahtera J. ↑,
74', Andersson E. ↓, Koskinen O. ↑,
79', Lima P. ↓, Terrnava D. ↑,
83', Sarr M. ↓, Ojanen J. ↑,
84', Kabashi A. 🟨,
89', Lindholm A. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

Lahti is Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

VPS will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in VPS: Daoussi Y. (Yellow Cards) Ronnberg V. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lahti: Muller J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in VPS: Muzinga J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, VPS won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, VPS won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	30:31	-1	36

Last Results with these Odds

Lahti - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 30.04%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
22.08.26	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	VPS Vaasa - TPS	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	FF Jaro - VPS Vaasa	1:3 ✺
02.08.26	VPS Vaasa - Inter Turku	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLL
- FC Lahti
Finnish Veikkausliiga
21.08.26	SJK - Lahti	0:0 ✺
16.08.26	Lahti - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Inter Turku - Lahti	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Lahti - FF Jaro	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Ilves - Lahti	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.05.26	Lahti - VPS Vaasa	1:1
25.08.24	Lahti - VPS Vaasa	0:0
03.05.24	VPS Vaasa - Lahti	3:0
18.08.23	Lahti - VPS Vaasa	0:2
05.04.23	VPS Vaasa - Lahti	0:0
28.09.22	Lahti - VPS Vaasa	0:2
20.08.22	VPS Vaasa - Lahti	2:3

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