Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 15

Date: 10 July 2026, Friday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Onefootball


	VPS Vaasa		SJK

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.7	3.9	Watch
	1.78	3.80	4.00
	1.75	3.95	3.95	Watch
	1.85	4.12	4.08
	1.81	4.12	3.9	Watch
	1.8	4.05	4
	1.8	3.8	4	Watch
	1.75	3.75	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.19)	3.91 ↑ (3.48)	3.96 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
52.4%

Draw
23.9%

SJK
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

26.5%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

25.7%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in VPS Vaasa's performance.

SJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and SJK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with VPS Vaasa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SJK than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that SJK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.9%	8.6%	8.6%

VPS Vaasa - SJK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - VPS (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.54) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: VPS Vaasa will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.37% – 95.35%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): VPS Vaasa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. VPS (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (G) 3. Simpson R. 6. Okereke E. 19. Haukioja M. (C) 13. Ogunniyi O. 2. Mane L. 8. Lima P. 7. Turfkruier J. 11. Muzinga J. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 15. Smyth L.	1. Paunio R. (G) 6. Yussif S. 43. Bagayogo S. 32. Yakubu S. 5. Vaisto O. 18. Arsalo M. (C) 31. Onuoha E. 42. Caio Araujo 47. Suso M. 15. Mommo E. 7. Kelwin
Substitutes
24. Daoussi Y. 26. Forsbacka R. 33. Kuek A. 14. Lindholm S. 23. Niemi M. 20. Odhiambo X. 1. Piispa A. (G) 34. Raisanen A. 5. Ronnberg V.	8. Bostrom A. 17. Hanninen V. 60. James S. (G) 33. Machaal A. 19. Mastokangas E. 26. Moisio J. 10. Paananen K. 99. Rangel 3. Yao K.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Wiss J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Bagayogo S. 🟨,
13', Haukioja M. (Penalty Awarded),
17', Kelwin 🟨,
25', Haukioja M. 🟨,
41', Kouassivi-Benissan K. 🟨,
41', Yakubu S. 🟨,
42', Vaisto O. ↓, Yao K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Muzinga J. ↓, Odhiambo X. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Odhiambo X. ⚽,
51', Mane L. 🟨,
62', Caio Araujo ↓, Rangel ↑,
62', Suso M. ↓, Bostrom A. ↑,
62', Kelwin ↓, Paananen K. ↑,
68', Odhiambo X. 🟨,
75', Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↓, Lindholm S. ↑,
75', Lima P. ↓, Raisanen A. ↑,
81', Smyth L. ↓, Daoussi Y. ↑,
85', Arsalo M. ↓, Mastokangas E. ↑,
89', Turfkruier J. ↓, Ronnberg V. ↑,
90+4', Nuorela J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 4.

VPS is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

SJK's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

SJK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

VPS is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in VPS: van Duivenbooden S. (Injury)

There will not play in SJK: Bjorkskog A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in SJK: Padera P. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, VPS won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 32:36. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, VPS won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	30:31	-1	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	4:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
30.06.26	VPS Vaasa - Inter Turku	2:3 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	1:1 ✺
23.06.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	5:1 ✺
17.06.26	SJK - VPS Vaasa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLTWW
- SJK Seinajoki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	SJK - TPS	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	Ilves - SJK	2:2 ✺
23.06.26	Inter Turku - SJK	1:1 ✺
17.06.26	SJK - VPS Vaasa	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Lahti - SJK	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.06.26	SJK - VPS Vaasa	1:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
21.02.26	SJK - VPS Vaasa	0:6
Finnish Veikkausliiga
10.08.25	VPS Vaasa - SJK	1:2
12.05.25	SJK - VPS Vaasa	2:3
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
22.02.25	SJK - VPS Vaasa	0:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
28.09.24	SJK - VPS Vaasa	1:4
12.08.24	SJK - VPS Vaasa	3:1

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