What is the expert prediction for VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn?

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VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, July 04, 2026)

Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 14

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Onefootball


	VPS Vaasa		IFK Mariehamn

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.25	9.00	Watch
	1.30	5.25	9.50
	1.30	5.10	8.50
	1.29	6.15	10.19
	1.32	5.35	9.32	Watch
	1.26	6.05	10.00
	1.29	5.55	9.06	Watch
	1.26	5.40	8.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.36)	5.51 ↑ (4.9)	9.27 ↑ (8.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
72.9%

Draw
17%

IFK Mariehamn
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

19.2%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.6%

18.1%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

IFK Mariehamn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	7.7%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. VPS will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for VPS: 76.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - VPS (1.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH +1 - VPS (1.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - VPS (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - VPS (1.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): VPS Vaasa will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. VPS (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (C) 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 6. Okereke E. 19. Haukioja M. 3. Simpson R. 8. Lima P. 2. Mane L. 7. Turfkruier J. 13. Ogunniyi O. 15. Smyth L. 11. Muzinga J.	32. Riikonen M. (G) 3. Soiniemi A. 38. Amankwah Y. 2. Nurmi N. (C) 31. Ngulube S. 18. Stroud A. 20. Patut E. 8. Heyden J. 64. Hyvonen M. 43. Andersson L. 7. Larsson A.
Substitutes
24. Daoussi Y. 16. Forsbacka R. 35. Keturi O. 33. Kuek A. 23. Niemi M. 1. Piispa A. (G) 34. Raisanen A. 5. Ronnberg V.	14. Bergvik A. 16. Huttunen A. 5. Koivisto T. 1. Lund K. (G) 28. Nissinen J. 9. Nunez W. 23. Widlund V.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Bjorknesjo R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Smyth L. ⚽, Kouassivi-Benissan K. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Ogunniyi O. ⚽, Kouassivi-Benissan K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', Stroud A. ↓, Huttunen A. ↑,
63', Andersson L. ↓, Bergvik A. ↑,
63', Hyvonen M. ↓, Widlund V. ↑,
66', Muzinga J. ↓, Keturi O. ↑,
67', Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↓, Raisanen A. ↑,
67', Simpson R. ↓, Niemi M. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Keturi O. ⚽,
76', Turfkruier J. ↓, Ronnberg V. ↑,
78', Larsson A. ↓, Nunez W. ↑,
78', Heyden J. ↓, Koivisto T. ↑,
82', Lima P. ↓, Kuek A. ↑,
90', 4 - 0, Kuek A. ⚽, Ronnberg V. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 3.

VPS has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mariehamn is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

VPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, VPS is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in VPS: van Duivenbooden S. (Injury)

There will not play in Mariehamn: Bergvik A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, VPS won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:24. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, VPS won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	VPS	20	8	6	6	28:21	7	30
12	Mariehamn ✔	20	1	5	14	11:41	-30	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Cup
30.06.26	VPS Vaasa - Inter Turku	2:3 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	1:1 ✺
23.06.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	5:1 ✺
17.06.26	SJK - VPS Vaasa	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	VPS Vaasa - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTWWT
- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Inter Turku	0:2 ✺
23.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - HJK	0:4 ✺
18.06.26	Oulu - IFK Mariehamn	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3 ✺
30.05.26	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.05.26	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	0:1
21.09.25	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	2:1
01.08.25	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	1:1
14.06.25	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	1:5
28.07.24	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
12.06.24	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	0:0
03.09.23	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	1:2

VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide