Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Main - Round 10

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tonna G. (Mlt)


	Valletta		Hamrun Spartans

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.00	2.55
	2.45	2.92	2.7
	2.44	2.99	2.77
	2.46	3.11	2.79	Watch
	2.35	2.9	2.7
	2.4	2.98	2.7
	2.48	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (3.3)	2.99 ↓ (3.1)	2.71 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valletta
36.8%

Draw
30.1%

Hamrun Spartans
33.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.7%

28.5%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

27.9%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valletta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valletta's performance.

Hamrun Spartans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hamrun Spartans might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valletta than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valletta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamrun Spartans than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hamrun Spartans could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Valletta - Hamrun Spartans Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Maringa Adilson (G) 11. Azzopardi J. 4. Bicakcic E. 3. Ellul M. 9. Gomes B. 33. Mbende E. 10. Paiber B. 55. Radic S. 23. Sekulovic P. 19. Tavares D. 8. Zammit A.	1. Marchegiani G. (G) 27. Bjelicic O. 94. Camenzuli R. 88. Coric A. 91. Emerson 8. Grech J. 13. Polito V. 2. Rafael Compri 10. Villela L. 47. Virano G. 5. Xerri S.
Substitutes
32. Alex Tanque 18. Ancilleri M. 5. Chetcuti S. 80. Ewurum K. 98. Formosa Z. 13. Frendo L. (G) 44. Micallef N. 21. Prsa R. 42. Sylla M. 77. Thaylor 20. Yankam Y.	7. Attard S. 63. Azzopardi Z. 92. Brincau K. (G) 24. Camilleri S. 77. Caua de Aguiar Alves M. 98. Celio (G) 9. Ceter D. 6. Guillaumier M. 21. Letherby D. 4. Mangion M. 55. Scicluna K.
Coaches
Micallef T.	Amelia M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Villela L. ⚽,
22', Villela L. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Villela L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Azzopardi J. ↓, Prsa R. ↑,
46', Bicakcic E. ↓, Thaylor ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Mbende E. ⚽,
65', Villela L. ↓, Ceter D. ↑,
69', Zammit A. ↓, Ewurum K. ↑,
72', Coric A. ↓, Caua de Aguiar Alves M. ↑,
80', Grech J. 🟨,
80', Camenzuli R. 🟨,
82', Sekulovic P. ↓, Alex Tanque ↑,
87', Camenzuli R. ↓, Attard S. ↑,
88', Ellul M. ↓, Yankam Y. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6: ) and 5th in the Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6: )).

Valletta is Qualified for Premier League (First stage ~ Top 6 ).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valletta won 2.

Valletta is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Hamrun is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Hamrun may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Valletta has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:22 (averaging 0.9:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Valletta against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with 10:14 goals (averaging 0.9:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Valletta ✔	10	7	1	2	22:9	13	22
5	Hamrun	10	4	4	2	16:12	4	16

Last Results with these Odds

Hamrun Spartans - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 44.79%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valletta FC
Maltese Premier League
21.10.26	Mosta - Valletta	0:2 ✺
17.10.26	Valletta - Sliema Wanderers	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Birkirkara - Valletta	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Valletta	0:3 ✺
13.09.26	Valletta - Balzan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWT
- Hamrun Spartans
Maltese Premier League
21.10.26	Hamrun Spartans - Balzan	1:1 ✺
18.10.26	Gżira United - Hamrun Spartans	2:2 ✺
11.10.26	Hamrun Spartans - Paola Hibernians	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	4:1 ✺
11.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Hamrun Spartans	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
15.05.26	Valletta - Hamrun Spartans	0:2
02.05.26	Valletta - Hamrun Spartans	2:1
Maltese FA Trophy
04.03.26	Valletta - Hamrun Spartans	3:1 ET
Maltese Premier League
24.01.26	Valletta - Hamrun Spartans	0:0
22.11.25	Hamrun Spartans - Valletta	1:0
31.08.25	Hamrun Spartans - Valletta	1:1
02.03.24	Hamrun Spartans - Valletta	1:1

Valletta - Hamrun Spartans