Match Info

HNL - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Varteks (Varaždin)

Referee: Culina A. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go


	Varaždin		Osijek

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.50	3.80
	1.88	3.50	3.90
	1.71	3.40	3.85
	1.86	3.49	4.64
	1.97	3.33	3.92	Watch
	1.79	3.45	4.55
	1.86	3.72	4.04	Watch
	1.83	3.45	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.12)	3.48 ↑ (3.01)	4.06 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varaždin
50.6%

Draw
26.6%

Osijek
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

30.8%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

30.7%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varaždin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varaždin's performance.

Osijek has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varaždin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osijek than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Varaždin - Osijek Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Osijek will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Osijek (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silic J. (G) 23. Maglica F. 13. Mladenovski M. 16. Tepsic N. 20. Sikosek G. 28. Canjuga I. 24. Marina M. (C) 10. Latkovic A. 22. Mamic L. 38. Tavares I. 9. Juric S.	31. Malenica M. (C) 22. Kruiver J. 98. Jezic J. 26. Jelenic L. 2. Heister M. 23. Vrbancic L. 10. Jezic I. 39. Bukvic D. 30. Ljatifi A. 11. Tunjic L. 79. Leon A.
Substitutes
17. Akrap V. 44. Barac M. 12. Bockaj P. 3. Durakovic E. 8. Duvnjak T. 5. Lesjak S. 1. McCrorie R. (G) 21. Posavec I. 30. Posinkovic L. 6. Puclin D. 4. Skaricic L. 11. Uchegbu E.	67. Bakti B. 99. Balelo 9. Baric I. 21. Cantero A. 1. Curcija N. (G) 18. Farkas N. 33. Hasic E. 47. Kalem D. 49. Kolarik I. 77. Mustafic S. 16. Petrusenko O.
Coaches
Safaric N.	Bessone F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Kruiver J. 🟨,
28', Sikosek G. 🟨,
35', Heister M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jelenic L. ↓, Hasic E. ↑,
46', Latkovic A. ↓, Uchegbu E. ↑,
46', Sikosek G. ↓, Durakovic E. ↑,
63', Tunjic L. ↓, Farkas N. ↑,
63', Ljatifi A. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
67', Farkas N. 🟨,
67', Juric S. ↓, Akrap V. ↑,
67', Tavares I. ↓, Duvnjak T. ↑,
68', Jezic I. ↓, Bakti B. ↑,
84', Mladenovski M. ↓, Skaricic L. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varaždin won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Osijek may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Varaždin is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Varaždin: Ilinkovic S. (Inactive) Puncec R. (Inactive) Vuk M. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Osijek: Dolcek I. (Inactive) Matkovic A. (Knee Injury) Mejia Moscoso D. M. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Varaždin: Puclin D. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Varaždin has recorded 7 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:22 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Varaždin against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 16:16 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Osijek	9	5	1	3	18:14	4	16
4	Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13:7	6	15

Last Results with these Odds

Varaždin - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.77%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Varaždin
Croatian HNL
14.09.26	Gorica - Varaždin	2:2 ✺
Croatian Cup
09.09.26	Zagora Unešić - Varaždin	0:4 ✺
Croatian HNL
04.09.26	Varaždin - Istra 1961	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Varaždin - Rudeš	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Varaždin	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWTWL
- NK Osijek
Croatian HNL
12.09.26	Osijek - Dinamo Zagreb	4:2 ✺
Croatian Cup
09.09.26	Segesta - Osijek	3:1 ✺
Croatian HNL
05.09.26	Rijeka - Osijek	4:1 ✺
30.08.26	Osijek - Slaven Belupo	3:0 ✺
23.08.26	Hajduk Split - Osijek	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
17.04.26	Osijek - Varaždin	0:2
08.02.26	Varaždin - Osijek	2:1
Croatian Cup
03.12.25	Varaždin - Osijek	2:1 penalties
Croatian HNL
02.11.25	Osijek - Varaždin	0:0
17.08.25	Varaždin - Osijek	0:0
17.05.25	Varaždin - Osijek	2:1
16.03.25	Osijek - Varaždin	0:0

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