Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 17

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Sanjoanense

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.7	5.15
	1.57	4.09	5.35	Watch
	1.5	3.7	5.75
	1.58	3.9	5.64	Watch
	1.5	3.75	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.68)	3.83 ↑ (3.43)	5.51 ↑ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
59.6%

Draw
23.9%

Sanjoanense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

26.4%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

24.9%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varzim's performance.

Sanjoanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Varzim - Sanjoanense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 20. Derick 71. Filipe L. 77. Franca F. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. 99. Pedro Clemente 45. Rebelo M. 31. Talocha 7. Teixeira G. 44. Vila Cova M.	36. Duarte A. (G) 23. Collazos J. 25. Couto J. 16. Gomes V. 10. Kiko Felix 24. Maio F. 2. Martins J. 84. Mosquera S. 13. Pinheiro Edu 33. Sa G. 30. Talles Wander
Substitutes
11. Benchi D. 27. Boloto 19. Chamito 49. Costa P. (G) 14. Graca H. 2. Pimenta G. 32. Rego R. 17. Sequeira D. 70. Ze Manuel	19. Cezar F. 21. Gomes R. . Maicol J. 1. Monteiro J. (G) 3. Nando 73. Oliveira D. 57. Robalinho T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', Gomes V. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Franca F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Rebelo M. 🟨,
59', Rebelo M. ↓, Boloto ↑,
59', Filipe L. ↓, Pimenta G. ↑,
59', Teixeira G. ↓, Chamito ↑,
71', Couto J. ↓, Maicol J. ↑,
75', Collazos J. 🟨,
80', Pedro Clemente ↓, Sequeira D. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Chamito ⚽,
85', Vila Cova M. 🟨,
87', Franca F. ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
87', Talles Wander ↓, Gomes R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Sanjoanense is Liga 3 (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 4.

Recent performances by Varzim have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sanjoanense is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Varzim is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Varzim won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Sanjoanense - the odds 4.61 are the expected chance of winning is 19.62%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
11.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Varzim - Trofense	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Paredes - Varzim	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Varzim - Braga B	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLLTW
- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
10.01.26	Sanjoanense - Trofense	2:4 ✺
04.01.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:0 ✺
20.12.25	Sanjoanense - Braga B	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	São João de Ver - Sanjoanense	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Sanjoanense - Amarante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
26.10.25	Sanjoanense - Varzim	3:3
12.01.25	Sanjoanense - Varzim	1:2
28.09.24	Varzim - Sanjoanense	3:0
21.01.24	Sanjoanense - Varzim	0:3
08.10.23	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:1
27.01.23	Varzim - Sanjoanense	0:1
08.10.22	Sanjoanense - Varzim	0:0

Varzim - Sanjoanense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide