Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 18

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal da Vidigueira (Vidigueira)


	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira		Serpa

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	1.95
	3.55	3.2	1.92
	3.48	3.04	1.99
	3.59	3.16	2.01	Watch
	3.5	2.9	2
	3.58	3.1	2
	3.6	3.2	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↓ (3.56)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	1.97 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
25.4%

Draw
29%

Serpa
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

28.6%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

27.9%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Serpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (1 - 1)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Vasco da Gama is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Serpa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Serpa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Vasco da Gama won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco da Gama won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
07.02.26	Alcochetense - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Oriental	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Alverca B - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	4:0 ✺
10.01.26	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Elvas	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Juventude de Évora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TTLLT
- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
07.02.26	Serpa - Moncarapachense	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Serpa	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Serpa - Alcochetense	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Serpa - Oriental	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
28.09.25	Serpa - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1:0
17.03.24	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Serpa	1:0
03.12.23	Serpa - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
12.02.23	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Serpa	1:1

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Serpa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide