Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 3 - ROUND 26

Date: 23 March 2024, Saturday


	Velarde		Castro

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	2
	3.7	3.04	1.98
	3.7	3.04	1.98
	3.77	3.02	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.08)	3.03 ↑ (2.95)	1.99 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Velarde
24.7%

Draw
29.9%

Castro
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

30.5%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

29.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Velarde has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Castro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Velarde than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castro than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Velarde is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Castro is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Castro will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Velarde won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Velarde CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
16.03.24	Atlético Albericia - Velarde	4:0 ✺
09.03.24	Velarde - Laredo	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Velarde - Sámano	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Guarnizo - Velarde	2:2 ✺
17.02.24	Velarde - Cartes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTTL
- Castro FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
17.03.24	Castro - Sámano	1:0 ✺
09.03.24	Guarnizo - Castro	0:0 ✺
03.03.24	Castro - Cartes	2:2 ✺
25.02.24	Tropezón - Castro	2:3 ✺
18.02.24	Castro - Solares-Medio Cudeyo	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
05.11.23	Castro - Velarde	2:1

Velarde - Castro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide