Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio 10 de Diciembre (Jasso)

Referee: Solorio Arreola H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Cruz Azul Hidalgo		Leones Negros UdeG

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.40	2.50
	2.55	3.30	2.43	Watch
	2.52	3.78	2.60
	2.47	3.6	2.62	Watch
	2.45	3.60	2.60
	2.50	3.74	2.50
	2.40	3.50	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.54)	3.56 ↑ (3.52)	2.54 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul Hidalgo
37.7%

Draw
26%

Leones Negros UdeG
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

26.2%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

25.5%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul Hidalgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul Hidalgo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Rodriguez R. (G) 66. Suarez J. 67. Mendoza J. 28. Rubio R. (C) 47. De Los Rios S. 57. Valdez D. 58. Sanchez E. 44. Leon C. 196. Ramírez I. 258. Castaneda E. 68. Valdivia C.	1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 24. Aguayo J. 27. Meza U. 5. Torres U. 10. Brigido J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.
Substitutes
69. Cubillas A. 27. Gamboa B. 56. Montes J. 181. Moreno R. (G) 183. Palacios K. 59. Ramirez D. 62. Rodriguez E. 70. Silva I. 53. Taboada V. 222. Villegas E.	15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 3. Flores L. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 167. Nuno M. 151. Padilla L. 11. Perez J. 153. Torres D. 31. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Landazabal E.	Sosa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Ramírez I. ⚽,
34', Gil O. 🟨,
37', Rubio R. 🟨,
44', Razo L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Brigido J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
46', Ramírez I. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Razo L. ⚽, Perez J. (A),
62', Castaneda E. ↓, Gamboa B. ↑,
62', Valdez D. ↓, Taboada V. ↑,
62', Valdivia C. ↓, Montes J. ↑,
67', Ramírez I. ↓, Palacios K. ↑,
73', Gil O. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
73', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
78', De Los Rios S. 🟨,
85', Rubio R. ↓, Silva I. ↑,
85', Hernandez S. A. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
85', Meza U. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
86', Escalante J. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Razo L. ⚽, Carreon A. (A),

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 15th and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Leones Negros UdeG may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Cruz Azul Hidalgo has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 0.8:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cruz Azul Hidalgo against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11:18	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Leones Negros UdeG - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.32%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Cancún - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6:0 ✺
29.08.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Tepatitlán de Morelos	6:0 ✺
21.08.26	Atlético La Paz - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTLWT
- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
24.01.14	Leones Negros UdeG - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2:0
11.08.13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0
10.03.13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Leones Negros UdeG	0:1
28.09.12	Leones Negros UdeG - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0:1

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