Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Referee: Delgadillo Franco O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Venados		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.39	4.60	5.50
	1.42	4.50	5.70
	1.42	5.18	6.43
	1.54	4.45	5.24	Watch
	1.39	5.00	6.40
	1.50	4.74	5.24	Watch
	1.42	4.60	5.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.49)	4.72 ↑ (4.29)	5.73 ↑ (5.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
64.3%

Draw
19.6%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

21.2%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

20.6%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venados than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Venados will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
3. Perez S. (G) 31. Dominguez I. 13. Ochoa Brandon 4. Grijalva A. 34. Saucedo S. 8. Kilani P. 10. Dominguez A. (C) 11. Tejeda D. 30. Torres M. 7. Reyes J. 29. Lora S.	1. Estrada A. (C) 36. Sanchez J. 4. Alonso R. 38. Cardenas A. 22. Sanguinetti F. 18. Martinez E. 5. Villalpando D. 25. Moreno A. 28. Lopez M. 31. Casas B. 40. Tamay A.
Substitutes
32. Aguilar M. 18. Amador K. 27. Benitez S. 23. Castellanos R. (G) 20. Cruz J. 9. Lazarte L. 16. Macias L. 14. Montiel S. 5. Naveda S. 6. Torres E.	33. Alcantar E. 32. Arevalo T. 27. Avila H. 39. Cruz J. 37. Egurrola L. 30. Gatica A. (G) 9. Paez L. 14. Rios Orbe J. L. 7. Ruiz E. 24. Valencia V.
Coaches
Castro N.	Olvera G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', Kilani P. 🟨,
38', Martinez E. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Lora S. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
45+6', Estrada A. ↓, Gatica A. ↑,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Tamay A. ↓, Avila H. ↑,
46', Casas B. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
49', Grijalva A. 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Lora S. ⚽, Tejeda D. (A),
57', 3 - 0, Tejeda D. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
59', Dominguez A. 🟨,
61', Avila H. 🟨,
66', Villalpando D. ↓, Arevalo T. ↑,
66', Alonso R. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
68', Ochoa Brandon ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
68', Grijalva A. ↓, Naveda S. ↑,
74', 4 - 0, Lora S. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
80', Tejeda D. ↓, Aguilar M. ↑,
80', Kilani P. ↓, Lazarte L. ↑,
81', Sanguinetti F. 🟨,
87', Lora S. ↓, Benitez S. ↑,
88', Benitez S. 🟨,
90', 5 - 0, Lazarte L. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 2.

In recent matches, Venados has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tepatitlán is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tepatitlán may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Venados is the team to beat.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Venados won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:13. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Venados won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.9:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Venados	11	6	1	4	26:21	5	19
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
05.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Venados - Dorados	4:2 ✺
14.08.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	5:1 ✺
08.08.26	Venados - Tapatío	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLW
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.09.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	1:4 ✺
29.08.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Tepatitlán de Morelos	6:0 ✺
20.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	3:2 ✺
13.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	2:0
10.10.25	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
10.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	2:2
26.07.24	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
18.01.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	0:5
27.09.23	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	5:1
04.01.23	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0

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