Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo (Venice)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter


	Venezia		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.38
	2.60	3.40	2.55
	2.85	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.93	3.65	2.52
	2.8	3.4	2.52	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.45
	2.94	3.45	2.43
	2.9	3.45	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.79)	3.43 ↑ (3.33)	2.48 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venezia
33.4%

Draw
27.9%

Fiorentina
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28.6%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

30.1%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.7%	22.6%	67.7%

Venezia - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Venezia will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 21 - 67.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 22.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 51.2% – 84.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Fiorentina (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Venezia (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Venezia (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stankovic F. (G) 3. Schingtienne J. 2. Moreno M. 5. Haps R. 18. Hainaut A. 71. Perez K. 6. Busio G. (C) 19. Sohm S. 20. Sagrado R. 10. Yeboah J. 45. Adams A.	43. de Gea D. (C) 20. Jimenez A. 3. Dragusin R. 6. Ranieri L. 33. Viery 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 14. Atta A. 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Beto 25. Njie A.
Substitutes
36. Berardi L. 14. Correia T. 8. Fanne L. 77. Fernandez T. 95. Gomes A. 25. Halhal R. 21. Helgason T. J. 15. Juan Jesus 29. Lauberbach L. 56. Lisman K. 70. Mazzocchi P. 16. Mohammed R. 96. Montipo L. (G) 55. Panada S. 7. Rrahmani A.	4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 2. Dodo 29. Gnonto W. 42. Inao Oulai C. 17. Joao Mario 19. Lezzerini L. (G) 32. Pellegrino M. 5. Pongracic M. 28. Pote 21. Valdepenas V.
Coaches
Stroppa G.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', 1 - 0, Adams A. ⚽, Busio G. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Mastantuono F. ⚽, Jimenez A. (A),
30', 1 - 2, Mastantuono F. ⚽, Beto (A),
38', Schingtienne J. 🟨,
44', Busio G. ↓, Helgason T. J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
60', Atta A. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
60', Beto ↓, Pellegrino M. ↑,
66', 1 - 3, Pellegrino M. ⚽, Fagioli N. (A),
69', Sagrado R. ↓, Correia T. ↑,
69', Moreno M. ↓, Juan Jesus ↑,
72', Njie A. 🟨,
73', Sohm S. 🟨,
80', Yeboah J. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
80', Sohm S. ↓, Lauberbach L. ↑,
80', Njie A. ↓, Pote ↑,
84', 1 - 4, Mastantuono F. ⚽,
86', 2 - 4, Hainaut A. ⚽, Haps R. (A),
89', Ranieri L. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
89', Mastantuono F. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,

Preview

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Fiorentina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Venezia: Adorante A. (Hernia) Basic T. (Foot Injury) Bella-Kotchap A. (Injury) Dagasso M. (Inactive) Franjic B. (Injury) Sverko M. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Parisi F. (Knee Injury) Sottil R. (Back Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venezia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Venezia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.35% Venezia: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4:13	-9	0

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 37.32%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venezia FC
Italian Serie A
06.09.26	Frosinone - Venezia	3:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.09.26	Udinese - Venezia	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.08.26	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Venezia - Lecce	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.26	Venezia - Modena	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Fiorentina - Torino	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Fiorentina - Frosinone	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
14.08.26	Fiorentina - Benevento	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.26	Fiorentina - Deportivo A Coruña	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
12.05.25	Venezia - Fiorentina	2:1
25.08.24	Fiorentina - Venezia	0:0
16.04.22	Fiorentina - Venezia	1:0
18.10.21	Venezia - Fiorentina	1:0
Club Friendly
21.07.18	Fiorentina - Venezia	0:1

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