Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 7

Date: 26 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: Goncalves da Silva K. A. (Bra)


	Vila Nova		Brusque

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.3	5.75	Watch
	1.68	3.3	5
	1.72	3.5	5
	1.72	3.48	5.84
	1.71	3.48	5.84
	1.67	3.5	5
	1.71	3.48	5.18	Watch
	1.68	3.3	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.74)	3.42 ↓ (3.46)	5.4 ↑ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
55.2%

Draw
27.4%

Brusque
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

27.2%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

22.7%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vila Nova that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brusque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Vila Nova - Brusque Predictions

Users Predictions: Vila Nova will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Denis Junior (G) 2. Elias 3. Juan Quintero 4. Jemmes 6. Rhuan 5. Cristiano 21. Geovane 27. Igor Henrique 70. Juan Christian 11. Alesson (C) 29. Junior Todinho	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 99. Mateus Pivo 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 4. Wallace 66. Alex Ruan 5. Rodolfo Potiguar 19. Marcos Serrato 21. Luiz Henrique 27. Diego Mathias 17. Guilherme Queiroz 94. Paulinho Moccelin
Substitutes
22. Apodi 20. Bruno Matias 7. Emerson Urso 14. Fabio 13. Guilherme Lacerda 17. Gustavinho 30. Halls (G) 19. Henrique Almeida 18. Joao Lucas 15. Joao Victor 10. Luciano Naninho 23. Vitor Graziani	70. Anderson Rosa 11. Diego Tavares 7. Dionisio 2. Everton Alemao 35. Georgemy (G) 3. Ianson 8. Jhemerson 6. Matheus Salustiano 9. Olavio 80. Osman 15. Ronei 29. Wellissol
Coaches
Marcio Fernandes	Luizinho Vieira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Alesson (Pen),
23', Juan Christian 🟨,
25', 1 - 1, Guilherme Queiroz ⚽,
29', Mateus Pivo 🟨,
37', Rhuan 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Junior Todinho ⚽, Alesson (A),
54', Junior Todinho 🟨,
55', 2 - 2, Alex Ruan ⚽,
62', Luiz Henrique 🟥,
66', Igor Henrique ↓, Luciano Naninho ↑,
71', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Osman ↑,
74', Geovane ↓, Henrique Almeida ↑,
75', Diego Mathias ↓, Dionisio ↑,
75', Rodolfo Potiguar ↓, Wellissol ↑,
78', Matheus Nogueira 🟨,
81', Juan Christian ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
81', Elias ↓, Apodi ↑,
86', Mateus Pivo ↓, Ronei ↑,
87', Alex Ruan ↓, Everton Alemao ↑,
89', Dionisio 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 2.

Vila Nova is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Brusque has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Vila Nova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Vila Nova have a series of guest games.

In this match Vila Nova is a favorite.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Guilherme Lacerda (Injury) Juan Quintero (Injury) Junior Todinho (Injury)

There will not play in Brusque: Cristovam (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Vila Nova won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 0-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Copa Verde
22.05.24	Paysandu - Vila Nova	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.24	CRB Maceio - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
14.05.24	Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
11.05.24	Cuiabá - Vila Nova	4:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
08.05.24	América Mineiro - Vila Nova	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL
- Brusque FC
Copa do Brasil
22.05.24	Atlético Goianiense - Brusque	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.05.24	Santos - Brusque	4:0 ✺
15.05.24	Brusque - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
11.05.24	Sport Recife - Brusque	4:1 ✺
05.05.24	Brusque - Goiás	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
17.09.22	Brusque - Vila Nova	0:1
07.06.22	Vila Nova - Brusque	0:2
24.10.21	Brusque - Vila Nova	2:3
21.07.21	Vila Nova - Brusque	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
02.01.21	Vila Nova - Brusque	0:3
26.12.20	Brusque - Vila Nova	0:0

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