Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 27 July 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	CRB Maceio		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	3.8	Watch
	2.00	3.20	3.50
	1.95	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2	3.4	4.09
	2.15	3.29	3.4	Watch
	2.13	3.25	3.6
	1.96	3.52	3.64	Watch
	1.97	3.3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.74)	3.34 ↓ (3.65)	3.69 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CRB Maceio
46.7%

Draw
28%

Vila Nova
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

25.6%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

25.2%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CRB Maceio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that CRB Maceio's form might have worsened.

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for CRB Maceio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

CRB Maceio - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. CRB will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for CRB: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CRB (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitor Caetano (G) 2. Kevin 22. Bressan (C) 33. Lyncon 36. Lucas Lovat 8. Crystopher Ribeiro 21. Pedro Castro 10. Danielzinho 17. Thiaguinho 28. Mikael 97. Dada Belmonte	1. Helton Leite (G) 16. Igor Carius 4. Douglas Mendes 23. Breno Augusto 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 21. Higor Meritao 31. Dodo 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 49. Dellatorre
Substitutes
45. De Lucca 7. Douglas Baggio 23. Fabio Henrique (G) 18. Geovane 11. Guilherme Pato 44. Henri 9. Joao Neto 77. Leo Campos 50. Luizao 6. Reverson 19. Ruy 20. Vinicius Barata	29. Dalberson (G) 15. Dudu 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 17. Everton Galdino 9. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 6. Higor 8. Kerlon 20. Nathan Camargo 3. Tiago Pagnussat
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', Willian Formiga 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Bressan ⚽, Dada Belmonte (A),
18', 2 - 0, Mikael ⚽, Thiaguinho (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dodo ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
46', Higor Meritao ↓, Dudu ↑,
46', Willian Formiga ↓, Higor ↑,
62', Breno Augusto 🟨,
68', Mikael ↓, Douglas Baggio ↑,
68', Danielzinho ↓, Geovane ↑,
74', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
75', Igor Carius ↓, Hayner ↑,
83', Dada Belmonte ↓, Vinicius Barata ↑,
83', Thiaguinho ↓, Guilherme Pato ↑,
88', Pedro Castro ↓, De Lucca ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CRB won 2.

CRB is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Vila Nova has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, CRB is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in CRB: Henri (Inactive) Matheus Albino (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Rafa Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan (Injury) Willian Maranhao (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, CRB won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, CRB won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49:45	4	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.26	Ceará - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
16.07.26	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	CRB Maceio - Goiás	2:2 ✺
04.07.26	Londrina - CRB Maceio	5:0 ✺
30.06.26	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWTLW
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
21.07.26	Vila Nova - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Criciúma - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
10.07.26	Juventude - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	2:2
15.11.25	CRB Maceio - Vila Nova	2:0
22.07.25	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	2:0
04.09.24	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	1:0
17.05.24	CRB Maceio - Vila Nova	1:0
03.09.23	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	0:1
21.05.23	CRB Maceio - Vila Nova	0:3

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