Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 21

Date: 11 August 2025, Monday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Paysandu		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.8	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.22	2.88	3.55
	2.25	2.92	4.05
	2.24	2.85	3.67	Watch
	2.25	3	3.4
	2.3	2.92	3.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.18)	2.94 ↓ (3.23)	3.61 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Paysandu
42.2%

Draw
31.9%

Vila Nova
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	58.3%	25%

Paysandu - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Vila Nova (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 4. Luan Freitas 6. Thalisson 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson 28. Leandro Vilela (C) 25. Ronaldo Henrique 20. Denner 11. Marlon Douglas 9. Diogo Oliveira 10. Mauricio Garcez	99. Halls (G) 14. Pedro Romano 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Weverton 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 8. Ralf 27. Igor Henrique 11. Vinicius Paiva 77. Guilherme Parede 19. Ruan Ribeiro
Substitutes
8. Andre Lima 92. Benitez J. 21. Bryan Borges 2. Edilson 30. Marcelinho 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 35. Mauricio Antonio 94. Patric Calmon 19. Petterson Novaes 27. Ramon Martinez 44. Thiago Heleno 99. Vinicius Faria	7. Andre Luis 18. Arilson 20. Bruno Mendes 10. Dodo 21. Gustavo Paje 6. Higor 29. Junior Todinho 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 22. Miticov 23. Nathan Melo 2. Thalys
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Paulo Turra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Ruan Ribeiro 🟨,
40', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
67', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
70', Denner ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
70', Marlon Douglas ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Joao Vieira ⚽, Andre Luis (A),
78', Guilherme Parede ↓, Higor ↑,
78', Ralf ↓, Arilson ↑,
78', Luan Freitas ↓, Edilson ↑,
79', Reverson ↓, Patric Calmon ↑,
87', Dodo ↓, Nathan Melo ↑,
87', Joao Vieira ↓, Miticov ↑,
90+5', Higor 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paysandu will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
03.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
28.07.25	Paysandu - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
23.07.25	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:5 ✺
12.07.25	Paysandu - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 TTTWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
31.07.25	Vila Nova - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	Volta Redonda - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
11.07.25	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
12.04.25	Vila Nova - Paysandu	1:0
24.11.24	Paysandu - Vila Nova	2:1
05.08.24	Vila Nova - Paysandu	2:2
Brazilian Copa Verde
22.05.24	Paysandu - Vila Nova	6:0
19.11.22	Vila Nova - Paysandu	1:1
15.11.22	Paysandu - Vila Nova	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
18.10.20	Paysandu - Vila Nova	0:0

Upcoming Matches