Match Info

Serie B - Round 14

Date: 20 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports


	Vila Nova		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	3.20	Watch
	2.20	3.10	3.10
	2.30	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.38	3.16	3.40
	2.32	3.03	3.3	Watch
	2.25	2.90	3.20
	2.32	3.05	3.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.36)	3.08 ↑ (3.01)	3.2 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
40.6%

Draw
30.2%

Náutico Capibaribe
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

31%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.4%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Helton Leite (G) 20. Nathan Camargo 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 38. Caio Marcelo 6. Higor 8. Willian Maranhao 5. Joao Vieira 11. Ryan 31. Dodo 99. Janderson 7. Andre Luis	1. Muriel Becker (C) 93. Reginaldo 25. Mateus Silva 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Wenderson 19. Leonai Souza 27. Luiz Felipe 10. Dodo 11. Victor Andrade 7. Vinicius
Substitutes
33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 49. Dellatorre 15. Dudu 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 17. Kerlon 16. Ramiro A. 4. Samuel Lucas	2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 30. Felipe Cardoso 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 77. Juninho 66. Leo Jance 16. Luiz Claudio 14. Matheus Ribeiro 41. Samuel Felix 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Janderson ⚽, Dodo (A),
8', 2 - 0, Andre Luis ⚽, Ryan (A),
16', Mateus Silva 🟨,
18', 3 - 0, Janderson ⚽, Andre Luis (A),
29', Mateus Silva ↓, Matheus Ribeiro ↑,
29', Leonai Souza ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
34', Tiago Pagnussat 🟨,
36', 3 - 1, Dodo ⚽,
42', 4 - 1, Ryan ⚽,
45', Luiz Felipe 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Reginaldo ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
62', Arnaldo ↓, Leo Jance ↑,
65', 4 - 2, Vinicius ⚽,
66', Dodo ↓, Dudu ↑,
76', Andre Luis ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
76', Ryan ↓, Hayner ↑,
78', Victor Andrade ↓, Felipe Cardoso ↑,
85', Janderson ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
85', Joao Vieira ↓, Enzo Bizzotto ↑,
90+1', 4 - 3, Luiz Claudio ⚽, Dodo (A),
90+6', Emerson Urso 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 3.

Vila Nova is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Náutico's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vila Nova will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Helton Leite (Inactive) Rafa Silva (Knee Injury) Willian Formiga (Inactive)

There will not play in Náutico: Derek (Yellow Cards) Paulo Sergio (Inactive)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Marquinhos Gabriel (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.6:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Vila Nova - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.55%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.44%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
14.06.26	Cuiabá - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
08.06.26	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Londrina - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	América Mineiro - Vila Nova	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWWWW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
09.03.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	1:2
06.05.22	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
10.09.21	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
15.06.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	2:0
18.11.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	1:2
01.08.17	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1

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