Match Info

Date: 12 September 2021, Sunday


	Vilafranquense		Chaves

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	1.9
	3.25	2.87	1.85
	3.65	3.2	1.95
	3.8	3.15	1.97
	3.97	3.4	2.05
	3.9	3.2	1.95
	3.74	3.32	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↑ (3.61)	3.19 ↑ (3.19)	1.95 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
24.5%

Draw
28.6%

Chaves
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

28.6%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

22.4%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chaves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vilafranquense - Chaves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Vilafranquense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Chaves is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chaves could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Chaves will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Vilafranquense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
30.08.21	Mafra - Vilafranquense	1:0 ✺
23.08.21	Vilafranquense - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
15.08.21	Nacional - Vilafranquense	4:0 ✺
09.08.21	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
25.07.21	Vilafranquense - Arouca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
26.08.21	Chaves - Académico de Viseu	3:0 ✺
22.08.21	Feirense - Chaves	3:1 ✺
16.08.21	Chaves - Leixões	1:1 ✺
07.08.21	Varzim - Chaves	2:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
24.07.21	Chaves - Farense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
23.03.21	Vilafranquense - Chaves	0:1
31.10.20	Chaves - Vilafranquense	0:0
29.12.19	Chaves - Vilafranquense	2:1

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