Match Info

Date: 19 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Nacional		Vilafranquense

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.2	2.4
	2.65	2.95	2.45
	2.55	3.1	2.6
	2.8	3.05	2.49
	2.95	3.08	2.71
	2.7	2.9	2.55
	2.78	3.13	2.45
	2.8	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.37)	3.06 ↓ (3.1)	2.52 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
33.4%

Draw
30.1%

Vilafranquense
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.3%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Vilafranquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vilafranquense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	29.4%	41.2%

Nacional - Vilafranquense Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Vilafranquense will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vilafranquense: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Two teams are playing changeable.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Nacional - Oliveirense	3:1 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.10.22	Moreirense - Nacional	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
02.10.22	Angrense - Nacional	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
18.09.22	Nacional - Trofense	0:1 ✺
11.09.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLW
- UD Vilafranquense
Taça de Portugal
14.10.22	Moreirense - Vilafranquense	3:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
08.10.22	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
18.09.22	Farense - Vilafranquense	2:1 ✺
10.09.22	Vilafranquense - Benfica B	3:2 ✺
03.09.22	Porto B - Vilafranquense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.01.22	Vilafranquense - Nacional	4:3
15.08.21	Nacional - Vilafranquense	4:0
15.02.20	Nacional - Vilafranquense	5:1
31.08.19	Vilafranquense - Nacional	1:2

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