Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:45	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	13:45	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	02:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	18:45	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	13:45	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	19:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	12:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	00:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	11:45	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	18:45	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	18:45	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	19:45	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	18:45	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, New World TV
Germany	18:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	18:45	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	16:45	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	22:15	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	17:45	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	19:45	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	01:45	Wowow Live
Kazakhstan	22:45	Qazsport
Kenya	19:45	Gotv
Laos	23:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	10:45	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	04:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	17:45	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte
North Macedonia	18:45	TDM Desporto
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play
Peru	11:45	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	18:45	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 1
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	19:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	00:45	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	18:45	Voyo
Slovenia	18:45	SportKlub 1
South Africa	18:45	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	01:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	00:45	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	23:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	19:45	Tabii, TRT Spor
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	17:45	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
International	16:45	Sport 24, VIX App


	Athletic Bilbao		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.4	1.73
	4.5	3.4	1.78
	5.25	3.5	1.8
	3.72	3.5	2.06
	4.83	3.55	1.74	Watch
	3.7	3.3	2.05
	5.37	3.56	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (3.7)	3.46 ↑ (3.46)	1.85 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
20.3%

Draw
27.8%

Arsenal
51.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.9%

27.8%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

27%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	10.1%	85.7%

Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Arsenal (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Arsenal (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Arsenal (1.18) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (98 of 112 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.38% – 93.63%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (45 of 48 users predict this - 93.75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 53 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 50 - 94.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 5.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 19. Boiro A. 18. Jauregizar M. 6. Vesga M. 7. Berenguer A. 8. Sancet O. 23. Navarro R. 9. Williams I. (C)	1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 3. Mosquera C. 6. Gabriel (C) 33. Calafiori R. 41. Rice D. 36. Zubimendi M. 23. Merino M. 20. Madueke N. 14. Gyökeres V. 10. Eze E.
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 34. De Luis J. 20. Gomez U. 11. Guruzeta G. 15. Lekue I. 27. Padilla A. (G) 30. Rego A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 21. Sannadi M. 26. Santos M. (G) 22. Serrano N.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 5. Hincapie P. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 11. Martinelli G. 16. Norgaard C. 22. Nwaneri E. 2. Saliba W. 35. Setford T. (G) 19. Trossard L.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Rice D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
61', Navarro R. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
65', Gyökeres V. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
68', Boiro A. ↓, Berchiche Y. ↑,
68', Sancet O. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
71', Eze E. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Martinelli G. ⚽, Trossard L. (A),
81', Gomez U. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
81', Vesga M. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
85', Madueke N. 🟨,
85', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
87', 0 - 2, Trossard L. ⚽, Martinelli G. (A),
90+1', Calafiori R. ↓, Hincapie P. ↑,
90+1', Madueke N. ↓, Norgaard C. ↑,
90+1', Zubimendi M. 🟨,

Preview

Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arsenal is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Arsenal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of home games.

In this match, Arsenal is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Laporte A. (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Odegaard M. (Shoulder Injury) Saka B. (Thigh Injury) White B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Norgaard C. (Injury) Saliba W. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
31.08.25	Betis - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWWW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
13.09.25	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Liverpool - Arsenal	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Arsenal - Leeds United	5:0 ✺
17.08.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Emirates Cup
09.08.25	Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Emirates Cup
09.08.25	Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao	3:0

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