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Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - League phase - Round 1
  • Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday
  • Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)
  • Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Athletic Bilbao Arsenal
    Athletic Bilbao Arsenal
    1 X 2
    #Advertisement. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ 5.75 3.4 1.73
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    (Initially)    		 4.73 ↑
    (3.7)    		 3.46 ↑
    (3.46)    		 1.85 ↓
    (2.08)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    20.3%    		Draw
    27.8%    		Arsenal
    51.9%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    25.9% 27.8% 46.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    25.1% 26.9% 47.8%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.
  • Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    4.2% 10.1% 85.7%

    Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.75 - Arsenal (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Arsenal (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Arsenal (1.18) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (98 of 112 users predict this - 87.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 81.38% – 93.63%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (45 of 48 users predict this - 93.75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 53 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 50 - 94.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 5.7%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
      3. SpainVivian D.
      4. SpainParedes A.
    19. SpainBoiro A.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
      6. SpainVesga M.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
      8. SpainSancet O.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
    		  1. SpainRaya D. (G)
    12. NetherlandsTimber J.
      3. SpainMosquera C.
      6. BrazilGabriel (C)
    33. ItalyCalafiori R.
    41. EnglandRice D.
    36. SpainZubimendi M.
    23. SpainMerino M.
    20. EnglandMadueke N.
    14. SwedenGyökeres V.
    10. EnglandEze E.
    Substitutes
    12. SpainAreso J.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    34. SpainDe Luis J.
    20. SpainGomez U.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    15. SpainLekue I.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
    30. SpainRego A.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    21. MoroccoSannadi M.
    26. SpainSantos M. (G)
    22. SpainSerrano N.
    		13. SpainArrizabalaga K. (G)
    56. EnglandDowman M.
      5. EcuadorHincapie P.
    49. EnglandLewis-Skelly M.
    11. BrazilMartinelli G.
    16. DenmarkNorgaard C.
    22. EnglandNwaneri E.
      2. FranceSaliba W.
    35. EnglandSetford T. (G)
    19. BelgiumTrossard L.
    Coaches
         SpainValverde E.
    		     SpainArteta M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 7', Rice D. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
    • 61', Navarro R. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
    • 65', Gyökeres V. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
    • 68', Boiro A. ↓, Berchiche Y. ↑,
    • 68', Sancet O. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
    • 71', Eze E. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
    • 72', 0 - 1, Martinelli G. ⚽, Trossard L. (A),
    • 81', Gomez U. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
    • 81', Vesga M. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
    • 85', Madueke N. 🟨,
    • 85', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
    • 87', 0 - 2, Trossard L. ⚽, Martinelli G. (A),
    • 90+1', Calafiori R. ↓, Hincapie P. ↑,
    • 90+1', Madueke N. ↓, Norgaard C. ↑,
    • 90+1', Zubimendi M. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Arsenal is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
  • Arsenal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • Recently, Athletic has had a series of home games.
  • In this match, Arsenal is seen as the favorite.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Laporte A. (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Odegaard M. (Shoulder Injury) Saka B. (Thigh Injury) White B. (Injury)
  • There are questionable in Arsenal: Norgaard C. (Injury) Saliba W. (Ankle Injury)
  • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.09.25 Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés 0:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    04.09.25 Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna 0:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.08.25 Betis - Athletic Bilbao 1:2 ✺
    25.08.25 Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano 1:0 ✺
    17.08.25 Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla 3:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6
    LLWWW
    - Arsenal FC
    English Premier League
    13.09.25 Arsenal - Nottingham Forest 3:0 ✺
    31.08.25 Liverpool - Arsenal 1:0 ✺
    23.08.25 Arsenal - Leeds United 5:0 ✺
    17.08.25 Manchester United - Arsenal 0:1 ✺
    Emirates Cup
    09.08.25 Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7
    WLWWW
    Latest Head to Head
    Emirates Cup
    09.08.25 Arsenal - Athletic Bilbao 3:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    - Arsenal FC
    UEFA Champions League
    13.10.26 Arsenal - Lille ✺
    English Premier League
    10.10.26 Arsenal - Leeds United ✺

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