What is the expert prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna?

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Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)

Match Info

LaLiga - Round 33

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV Online


	Athletic Bilbao		Osasuna

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.9	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.6	4.76
	1.85	3.53	4.49	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.2
	1.91	3.58	4.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.83)	3.48 ↓ (3.62)	4.49 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
51.2%

Draw
27.5%

Osasuna
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

28%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.5%	20%	7.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 29 - 72.5%). Osasuna will win (votes: 3 - 7.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 58.7% – 86.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Osasuna (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Osasuna (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 5. Alvarez Y. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 7. Berenguer A. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.	1. Herrera S. (G) 19. Rosier V. 22. Boyomo F. 5. Herrando J. 20. Galan J. 7. Moncayola J. 6. Torro L. 14. Garcia R. (C) 10. Oroz A. 21. Munoz V. 17. Budimir A.
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 19. Boiro A. 20. Gomez U. 25. Izeta 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 30. Rego A. 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M. 3. Vivian D.	41. Arguibide I. 11. Barja K. 23. Bretones A. 3. Cruz J. 13. Fernandez A. (G) 9. Garcia R. 16. Gomez M. 18. Moro R. 8. Munoz I. 31. Stamatakis D. (G)
Coaches
Valverde E.	Lisci A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Guruzeta G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Oroz A. 🟨,
57', Budimir A. (Penalty Awarded),
65', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
65', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
65', Berenguer A. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
71', Torro L. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
71', Garcia R. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
75', Laporte A. ↓, Vivian D. ↑,
78', Oroz A. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
81', Berchiche Y. ↓, Boiro A. ↑,
84', Moncayola J. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
84', Herrando J. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
90+1', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
90+7', Williams I. 🟨,
90+8', Gomez M. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.

Athletic is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Osasuna has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Athletic is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Osasuna: Benito I. (Knee Injury) Catena A. (Yellow Cards) Osambela A. (Red Card)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Ath Bilbao	38	13	6	19	43:58	-15	45
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	44:50	-6	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.26	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Getafe - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Bilbao - Betis	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL
- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.26	Osasuna - Betis	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Osasuna - Girona	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Osasuna - Mallorca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
03.01.26	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
30.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:3
Spanish LaLiga
21.12.24	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:2
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
11.05.24	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:2

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Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide