Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Fanatiz
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vitória Salvador		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.55
	2.68	2.88	2.88
	2.79	3.03	3.01
	2.93	2.98	2.83	Watch
	3	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.63)	2.98 ↓ (3)	2.78 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
33.6%

Draw
32%

Fluminense
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

31.1%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

31.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	5.9%	17.6%

Vitória Salvador - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Fluminense will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitória: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Vitória (1.96) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Vitória (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitória Salvador will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 15 - 88.2%). Fluminense (votes: 2 - 11.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 4. Camutanga 5. Lucas Halter (C) 13. Ramon 21. Dudu 6. Pepe 33. Erick 10. Matheuzinho 11. Osvaldo 79. Renato Kayzer	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 12. Fuentes G. 94. Otavio 35. Hercules 17. Canobbio A. 45. Lima 90. Serna K. 14. Cano G. (C)
Substitutes
17. Cantalapiedra A. 2. Claudinho 43. Edu 23. Fabricio 31. Lopez R. 66. Maykon Jesus 28. Ricardo Ryller 7. Romarinho 8. Ronald Lopes 12. Thiago Couto (G) 29. Willian Oliveira 3. Ze Marcos	5. Bernal F. 99. John Kennedy 46. Julio Fidelis 11. Keno 19. Lavega J. 18. Lezcano R. 26. Manoel 30. Moreno S. 28. Riquelme Felipe 29. Thiago Santos 36. Vagno 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Chagas R.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', Dudu 🟨,
20', Serna K. 🟨,
25', Dudu 🟨,
32', Osvaldo ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
32', Lima ↓, Lavega J. ↑,
32', Serna K. ↓, Lezcano R. ↑,
37', 0 - 1, Hercules ⚽,
44', Igor Rabello 🟨,
45+3', Igor Rabello 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lezcano R. ↓, Manoel ↑,
63', Erick ↓, Romarinho ↑,
64', Pepe 🟨,
65', Ronald Lopes ↓, Fabricio ↑,
71', Hercules ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
74', Guga ↓, Julio Fidelis ↑,
76', Fabricio ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
76', Caceres R. ↓, Claudinho ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Vitória may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Vitória: Baralhas (Yellow Cards) Claudinho (Ankle Injury) Jamerson (Ankle Injury) Ramos R. (Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Samuel Xavier (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: PH Ganso (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
25.08.25	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	8:0 ✺
16.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Juventude	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWLTL
- Fluminense RJ
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Santos - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1
26.10.24	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	2:1
27.06.24	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	0:1
06.09.18	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	0:0
06.05.18	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	1:2
10.09.17	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	2:2
03.06.17	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	2:1

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