Match Info

Pernambucano - Round 7

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Severino Candido Carneiro (Vitoria de Santo Antao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Vitória das Tabocas		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	9.4	4.45	1.31
	10.51	4.8	1.3
	9.93	4.74	1.28	Watch
	7	4	1.36
	12.4	4.4	1.26
	11	4.75	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.04 ↑ (8.71)	4.52 ↓ (4.68)	1.3 ↓ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória das Tabocas
9.1%

Draw
20.3%

Náutico Capibaribe
70.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.5%

19.6%

69.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.1%

18.8%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória das Tabocas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória das Tabocas than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Vitória das Tabocas - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diego (G) 6. Alan Pires 5. Diego Aragao 8. Ewerton Ageu 2. Guilherme Lucena 4. Hitalo 34. Leo Gaucho 9. Manoel 11. Natanel 7. Pedro Maycon 10. Tomas Dias	1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 98. Felipe Saraiva 13. Indio 11. Juninho 34. Samuel Otusanya 7. Vinicius 43. Wanderson 8. Wenderson 6. Yuri
Substitutes
22. Bruninho 13. Claudio Caca-Rato 14. Elivelton 18. Gabriel Pires 17. Juninho Carpina 12. Lucao (G) 16. Lucas Leandro 15. Miro 19. Olimpio L. 23. Pepeto 20. Ricardo P. 21. Villela I.	32. Emanuel 46. Fagundes G. 21. Felipe Redaelli 22. Guilherme 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 20. Kevyn Santos 66. Leo Jance 30. Liedson 27. Luiz Felipe 40. Ramon 37. Rikelme 31. Rosa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Alan Pires (Own goal),
16', Auremir ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
25', Alan Pires 🟨,
30', Juninho 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Pedro Maycon ⚽,
45+1', Leo Gaucho ↓, Claudio Caca-Rato ↑,
45+3', 2 - 1, Natanel ⚽,
45+5', 2 - 2, Juninho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Natanel ↓, Paulo Ricardo ↑,
59', Elivelton 🟨,
62', Guilherme Lucena 🟨,
72', Juninho ↓, Ramon ↑,
79', 2 - 3, Rosa G. ⚽,
81', Yuri ↓, Leo Jance ↑,
81', Felipe Saraiva ↓, Kevyn Santos ↑,
83', Leo Jance 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Náutico is Qualified for Pernambucano (Play Offs Semi~finals)

Recent form of Vitória das Tabocas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Náutico is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Náutico is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória das Tabocas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:12. (average 0.6:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória das Tabocas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória das Tabocas
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
28.01.26	Decisão - Vitória das Tabocas	0:4 ✺
24.01.26	Sport Recife - Vitória das Tabocas	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Vitória das Tabocas - Maguary	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Vitória das Tabocas	1:0 ✺
13.01.26	Vitória das Tabocas - Jaguar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLLT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
28.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
22.01.26	Jaguar - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
18.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	4:0 ✺
14.01.26	Decisão - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
27.03.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Vitória das Tabocas	4:1
05.02.20	Vitória das Tabocas - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
20.03.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Vitória das Tabocas	3:0
06.02.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Vitória das Tabocas	2:0
28.01.18	Vitória das Tabocas - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1

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