Match Info

PORTUGAL: TAÇA DE PORTUGAL - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 11 January 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Vitoria Guimarães		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.2	6	12
	1.2	5.75	11.5	Watch
	1.2	6.5	13
	1.2	6.51	14.5
	1.2	6.51	14.13
	1.17	6	13
	1.22	6.55	13	Watch
	1.22	6.6	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.49)	6.3 ↑ (4.19)	13.02 ↑ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
77.9%

Draw
14.9%

Penafiel
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

22.1%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

21.4%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitoria Guimarães's performance.

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penafiel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitoria Guimarães that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penafiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	16.7%	11.1%

Vitoria Guimarães - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Penafiel will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Charles (G) 44. Fernandes J. 6. Manu 4. Ribeiro T. 2. Miguel Maga 80. Silva D. 10. Tiago Silva (C) 19. Mangas R. 77. Santos N. 7. Andre Silva 17. Mendes J.	31. Balde M. (G) 44. Pereira R. 4. Miguel J. 6. Teixeira L. (C) 75. Ribeiro R. 8. Reko 19. Chico Teixeira 21. Batista D. 27. Freitas R. 7. Firmino H. 11. Adilio
Substitutes
24. Borevkovic T. 22. Butzke A. 52. Costa A. 20. Da Luz N. 72. Freitas A. 76. Gaspar B. 8. Handel T. 11. Jota Silva 14. Varela B. (G)	26. Brito D. 35. Cardoso F. 73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 68. Maga 5. Pereira B. 13. Pinheiro Edu 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 30. Silva A.
Coaches
Pacheco A.	Cristovao H.

Preview

Guimarães is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Guimarães is indisputable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guimarães won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Guimarães won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
16.12.23	Boavista - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
09.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	3:2 ✺
02.12.23	Farense - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 TWTWW
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
06.01.24	Penafiel - Vilaverdense	2:1 ✺
23.12.23	Marítimo - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
09.12.23	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
03.12.23	Penafiel - Tondela	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
07.07.18	Vitoria Guimarães - Penafiel	3:1
Taça de Portugal
18.10.15	Penafiel - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0
Liga Portugal
31.01.15	Penafiel - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
22.08.14	Vitoria Guimarães - Penafiel	3:0
Club Friendly
19.07.14	Vitoria Guimarães - Penafiel	2:1

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