Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 16

Date: 6 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Penafiel		Vilaverdense

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.8	6
	1.52	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4	6	Watch
	1.57	4.09	6.3
	1.57	4.11	6.38
	1.5	3.75	5.5
	1.55	3.94	5.71	Watch
	1.51	3.85	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.88)	3.91 ↑ (3.41)	5.87 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
60.5%

Draw
23.7%

Vilaverdense
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

27.1%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

26.5%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penafiel's performance.

Vilaverdense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vilaverdense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penafiel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilaverdense than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vilaverdense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Penafiel - Vilaverdense Predictions

Users Predictions: Penafiel will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva P. (G) 44. Pereira R. 4. Miguel J. 6. Teixeira L. (C) 11. Adilio 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 21. Batista D. 35. Cardoso F. 15. Silva J. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 75. Ribeiro R.	93. Santos R. (G) 94. Viegas R. 33. Gustavo 26. Batista J. 19. Lopes A. 23. Ericson (C) 5. Sako M. 70. Hanne B. 88. Neves L. 8. Joao Caiado 7. Teixeira G.
Substitutes
26. Brito D. 19. Chico Teixeira 73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 27. Freitas R. 68. Maga 13. Pinheiro Edu 30. Silva A. 9. Suker H. 99. Vieira P.	11. Bruno Silva 17. Fati N. 27. Freitas C. 1. Goncalves I. (G) 4. Kawale R. 6. Konate B. 3. Laercio 12. Maviram E. 10. Soares A.
Coaches
Cristovao H.	Machado S.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Vilaverdense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Penafiel is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
23.12.23	Marítimo - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
09.12.23	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
03.12.23	Penafiel - Tondela	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Penafiel - Setúbal	3:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWLLW
- Vilaverdense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.23	Torreense - Vilaverdense	3:1 ✺
17.12.23	Vilaverdense - Leixões	1:0 ✺
10.12.23	Marítimo - Vilaverdense	4:0 ✺
01.12.23	Vilaverdense - Leiria	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Vilaverdense	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWL

Penafiel - Vilaverdense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide