Match Info

BRAZIL: Capixaba - Round 9

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa (Vitoria)


	Vitória ES		Nova Venécia

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.75	5.6
	1.41	4.16	7.23
	1.45	4.04	6.67	Watch
	1.53	4.08	5.86
	1.52	3.75	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.62)	3.96 ↑ (3.56)	6.19 ↑ (5.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória ES
61.9%

Draw
23.3%

Nova Venécia
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

25.6%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

17.2%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória ES has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitória ES's performance.

Nova Venécia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (-24.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitória ES that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Venécia than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nova Venécia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vitória ES - Nova Venécia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Paulo Henrique (G) 4. Alex 10. Carlos Vitor 18. Foguete 6. Geisandro 5. Gualberto 15. Jonata 3. Matheus Paraiba 11. Moura T. 19. Tony (C) 23. Wendson	12. Flavio (G) 10. Alex Pixote 3. Caio Pacheco 7. Charles Oliveira 8. Darlan 2. Gustavo Toro 4. Lucas Tavares (C) 6. Lyncon 5. Parmanhani K. 16. Pepe 9. Podbang Casimir
Substitutes
26. Cezini A. 20. Edinho 24. Enzo 8. Gustavo Tonoli 13. Jairo 21. Junior Vernier (G) 25. Pedro Pires 27. Rodriguinho 7. Thiago 16. Thiago Magatao 17. Thiaguinho 14. Victor Vellaske	15. Braian 18. Coutinho 13. Erik Moreira (G) 23. Gerson 22. Joao Gabriel 17. Matheusinho 20. Mineiro 14. Pedro Ibelli 11. Rian 19. Sandrinho 21. Thaylan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', Moura T. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Tony ⚽,
27', Gualberto 🟨,
29', Jonata 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Gustavo Toro (Own goal),
40', Lyncon ↓, Coutinho ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
54', Wendson 🟨,
55', 2 - 1, Gustavo Toro ⚽,
58', 🟨,
59', 3 - 1, Jonata ⚽,
68', 4 - 1, Tony ⚽,
70', Tony ↓, Edinho ↑,
90+4', 5 - 1, Edinho ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vitória ES won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

In this match Vitória ES is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Vitória ES won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:14 (average 1.4:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Vitória ES won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
18.02.25	Jaguare - Vitória ES	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	Vitória ES - Capixaba SC	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
04.02.25	Vitória ES - Vilavelhense	4:0 ✺
01.02.25	Vitória ES - Noroeste	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTWL
- Nova Venécia FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
16.02.25	Nova Venécia - Noroeste	0:2 ✺
13.02.25	Rio Branco-VN - Nova Venécia	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Nova Venécia - Porto Vitória	2:1 ✺
06.02.25	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Nova Venécia	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Vilavelhense - Nova Venécia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
27.01.24	Nova Venécia - Vitória ES	2:2
08.04.23	Vitória ES - Nova Venécia	2:1 penalties
01.04.23	Nova Venécia - Vitória ES	3:1
16.02.23	Nova Venécia - Vitória ES	2:1
20.04.22	Nova Venécia - Vitória ES	1:3
13.04.22	Vitória ES - Nova Venécia	1:2
23.02.22	Vitória ES - Nova Venécia	0:3

Vitória ES - Nova Venécia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide