Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	3.8	2.95	2.05	Watch
	3.7	2.98	2.12	Watch
	4.17	3.13	2.1
	4.03	3.08	2.08	Watch
	3.9	2.9	2.1	Watch
	3.87	3.12	2.21	Watch
	4	2.9	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (3.82)	3.01 ↓ (3.16)	2.11 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
24%

Draw
31.3%

Gil Vicente
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

29.9%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

30.2%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	5.6%	55.6%

Casa Pia - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gil Vicente (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Gil Vicente (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 25%). Gil Vicente (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batista R. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 20. Oukili Y. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 7. Nsona K.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 48. Espigares A. 39. Buatu J. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 11. Fernandes J. 89. Varela G.
Substitutes
22. Azevedo D. (G) 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 8. Brito R. 90. Cassiano 4. Goulart J. 21. Morais T. 74. Nhaga R. 17. Severina X. 2. Tchamba D.	17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 4. Elimbi M. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 80. Rodrigues R. 7. Toure T. 6. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Santana A.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Fernandes J. 🟨,
37', Perez S. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Espigares A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 1, Nsona K. ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
65', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
65', Perez S. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
72', Nsona K. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
72', Oukili Y. ↓, Nhaga R. ↑,
72', Fernandes J. ↓, Toure T. ↑,
78', Murilo de Souza ↓, Bermejo ↑,
79', Varela G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
82', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
82', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
83', Larrazabal G. ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
90', Brito R. 🟨,
90', Peixoto C. 🟨,
90+3', Sousa D. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

Casa Pia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gil Vicente's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gil Vicente is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Mohamed I. (Inactive) Svensson M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Moreira A. (Injury) Pablo (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Alpendorada - Casa Pia	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLWTL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	AVS - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
22.02.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:0
22.09.24	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	1:1
03.03.24	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	0:0
02.10.23	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:0
27.05.23	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	1:0
22.01.23	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:3
Taça de Portugal
16.10.16	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	1:0 penalties

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