Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 20

Date: 4 February 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Vizela (Caldas de Vizela)

Referee: Oliveira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vizela		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	4	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.8	3.4	1.9	Watch
	3.75	3.5	1.95	Watch
	3.95	3.55	1.96
	4.07	3.69	1.95
	3.8	3.4	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.54	1.95	Watch
	3.9	3.55	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↑ (3.08)	3.53 ↑ (3.28)	1.93 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
24.2%

Draw
26.8%

Vitoria Guimarães
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

28.6%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

28.3%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vizela's form might have worsened.

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vitoria Guimarães's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vizela, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitoria Guimarães, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	5.7%	82.9%

Vizela - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Vizela will win (votes: 4 - 11.4%). Guimarães will win (votes: 29 - 82.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 70.4% – 95.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Buntic F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Jota Goncalves 25. Escoval R. 19. Lebedenko O. 20. Samu (C) 28. Bruno Costa 75. Lokilo J. 90. Nascimento D. 10. Quina D. 9. Petrov S.	14. Varela B. (C) 24. Borevkovic T. 44. Fernandes J. 4. Ribeiro T. 76. Gaspar B. 10. Tiago Silva 8. Handel T. 77. Santos N. 19. Mangas R. 7. Andre Silva 11. Jota Silva
Substitutes
5. Anderson Jesus 18. Awudu Abdul 11. Ba-Sy A. 22. Busnic A. 7. Jardel 8. Mendez A. 1. Ruberto F. (G) 14. Saint-Louis D. 29. Soro A.	21. Andre 22. Butzke A. 27. Charles (G) 72. Freitas A. 6. Manu 17. Mendes J. 2. Miguel Maga 79. Oliveira N. 28. Ze Carlos
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	Pacheco A.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vizela won 2.

Vizela is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guimarães is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Guimarães could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Guimarães will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Vizela won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
28.01.24	Arouca - Vizela	5:0 ✺
18.01.24	Vizela - Sporting Lisbon	2:5 ✺
14.01.24	Vizela - Boavista	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Vizela - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Estrela da Amadora - Vizela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWT
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
28.01.24	Gil Vicente - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
21.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora	3:0 ✺
15.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
11.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
27.08.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Vizela	2:0
07.05.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Vizela	3:0
30.12.22	Vizela - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Vizela	2:1 ET
Liga Portugal
30.01.22	Vizela - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2
22.08.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Vizela	4:0
Portuguese League Cup
30.12.16	Vizela - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2

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