Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 19

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV4


	Arouca		Vizela

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.65	4.59
	1.83	3.72	4.66
	1.8	3.5	3.9	Watch
	1.81	3.74	4.34	Watch
	1.83	3.65	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.02)	3.66 ↑ (3.41)	4.33 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
52.3%

Draw
25.9%

Vizela
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

27.6%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

27.6%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arouca's performance.

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arouca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	9.4%	9.4%

Arouca - Vizela Predictions

Users Predictions: Arouca will win (26 of 32 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.73% – 94.77%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Esgaio T. 64. Fernandes R. 4. Montero F. 26. Weverson 5. Simao D. (C) 8. Kouassi E. 10. Jason 2. Sylla M. 23. Cristo 19. Mujica R.	97. Buntic F. (G) 2. Oliveira H. 5. Anderson Jesus (C) 4. Jota Goncalves 25. Escoval R. 6. Matheus Pereira 79. Moreira N. 29. Soro A. 8. Mendez A. 90. Nascimento D. 99. Essende S.
Substitutes
14. Busquets O. 7. Lawal Y. 18. Michel B. 22. Milovanov B. 20. Moreira P. 11. Puche 13. Rocha M. 9. Trezza A. 1. Valido J. (G)	18. Awudu Abdul 11. Ba-Sy A. 73. Bursac N. (G) 22. Busnic A. 12. Bustamante R. 19. Lebedenko O. 42. Messias 1. Ruberto F. (G) 14. Saint-Louis D.
Coaches
Sousa D.	de la Barrera R.

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Recently Arouca have a series of guest games.

Recently Vizela have a series of home games.

In this match Arouca is a favorite.

There will not play in Arouca: Busquets O. (Injury) Moreira P. (Injury) Quaresma (Injury) Santos Carvalho P. (Yellow Cards) Vitinho (Injury)

There will not play in Vizela: Jardel (Injury) Ortiz P. (Injury) Rashid O. (National selection) Saint-Louis D. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
20.01.24	Estoril Praia - Arouca	1:2 ✺
15.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Vizela - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Arouca - Benfica	0:3 ✺
28.12.23	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLLW
- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
18.01.24	Vizela - Sporting Lisbon	2:5 ✺
14.01.24	Vizela - Boavista	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Vizela - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Estrela da Amadora - Vizela	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Vizela - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Vizela - Arouca	1:0
Liga Portugal
20.08.23	Vizela - Arouca	2:2
23.04.23	Arouca - Vizela	1:0
05.11.22	Vizela - Arouca	0:1
22.04.22	Vizela - Arouca	2:1
13.12.21	Arouca - Vizela	1:4
Portuguese Liga 2
21.03.21	Vizela - Arouca	1:1

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