Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 18

Date: 18 January 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Vizela (Caldas de Vizela)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring
France	beIN Sports Max
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV
Slovakia	Arena sport 1


	Vizela		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	11	5.5	1.29	Watch
	10	5.5	1.28	Watch
	11	5.5	1.28	Watch
	8.66	5.29	1.36
	12.07	5.95	1.28
	10	5.5	1.25	Watch
	10.5	5.6	1.29	Watch
	11	6	1.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.53 ↑ (7.58)	5.61 ↑ (5)	1.29 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
9%

Draw
17%

Sporting Lisbon
74%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.4%

18.8%

68.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.3%

18.7%

69.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Lisbon's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.5%	0%	95.5%

Vizela - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (42 of 44 users predict this - 95.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Buntic F. (G) 2. Oliveira H. 5. Anderson Jesus 25. Escoval R. 19. Lebedenko O. 6. Matheus Pereira 29. Soro A. 20. Samu (C) 22. Busnic A. 90. Nascimento D. 99. Essende S.	1. Adan A. (G) 72. Quaresma E. 4. Coates S. (C) 25. Inacio G. 47. Esgaio R. 42. Hjulmand M. 8. Goncalves P. 11. Santos N. 17. Trincao 9. Gyokeres V. 20. Paulinho
Substitutes
18. Awudu Abdul 73. Bursac N. (G) 12. Bustamante R. 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Jota Goncalves 8. Mendez A. 42. Messias 79. Moreira N. 1. Ruberto F. (G)	23. Braganca D. 10. Edwards M. 14. Essugo D. 12. Israel F. (G) 90. Moreira A. 13. Neto 51. Pinto Diogo (G) 45. Rafael
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	Amorim R.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vizela won 0.

Recent matches Vizela is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sporting in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Sporting is indisputable favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vizela won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 6-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
14.01.24	Vizela - Boavista	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Vizela - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Estrela da Amadora - Vizela	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Vizela - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Rio Ave - Vizela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWTTT
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
13.01.24	Chaves - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.01.24	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.01.24	Sporting Lisbon - Estoril Praia	5:1 ✺
30.12.23	Portimonense - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
23.12.23	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
12.08.23	Sporting Lisbon - Vizela	3:2
26.05.23	Vizela - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
20.01.23	Sporting Lisbon - Vizela	2:1
16.01.22	Vizela - Sporting Lisbon	0:2
06.08.21	Sporting Lisbon - Vizela	3:0
Taça de Portugal
17.12.14	Vizela - Sporting Lisbon	2:3

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