Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 16

Date: 6 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Almeida N. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Estrela da Amadora		Vizela

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.74	3.35	2.77
	2.72	3.35	2.77
	2.5	3.2	2.6	Watch
	2.7	3.22	2.69	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.34)	3.27 ↓ (3.34)	2.69 ↓ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
35.8%

Draw
29%

Vizela
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

28.5%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

28.2%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Vizela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estrela da Amadora, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	17.6%	47.1%

Estrela da Amadora - Vizela Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Vizela will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vizela: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bruno (G) 14. Santos Junior E. A. 5. Mendes P. 25. Shinga K. 12. Jean Felipe 22. Leo Cordeiro 18. Vito 17. Joao Reis (C) 11. Henrique G. 10. Andre Luiz 29. Kikas	97. Buntic F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 3. Wilson Valdez B. R. 5. Anderson Jesus 19. Lebedenko O. 90. Nascimento D. 12. Bustamante R. 17. Lacava M. 20. Samu (C) 7. Jardel 99. Essende S.
Substitutes
89. Cambila E. (G) 68. Figueiredo M. 70. Mansur 61. Ndour A. 2. Omurwa J. 90. Ronald 21. Sa P. 9. Tavares R.	18. Awudu Abdul 22. Busnic A. 4. Jota Goncalves 6. Matheus Pereira 8. Mendez A. 42. Messias 2. Oliveira H. 1. Ruberto F. (G) 9. Unzueta I.
Coaches
Vieira S.	de la Barrera R.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Estrela won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Estrela won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
28.12.23	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	1:4 ✺
15.12.23	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
10.12.23	Estrela da Amadora - Boavista	3:1 ✺
02.12.23	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
24.11.23	Vizela - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LTWTL
- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
23.12.23	Vizela - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Rio Ave - Vizela	1:1 ✺
08.12.23	Vizela - Braga	1:3 ✺
01.12.23	Chaves - Vizela	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
24.11.23	Vizela - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
24.11.23	Vizela - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ET
20.11.21	Vizela - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
Portuguese League Cup
24.07.21	Estrela da Amadora - Vizela	2:1

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