Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 28

Date: 12 April 2024, Friday

Location: Respect Energy Stadium (Grodzisk Wielkopolski)

Referee: Musial T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport 5
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Warta Poznań		Korona Kielce

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.8	2.75	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.8
	2.65	2.9	2.85	Watch
	2.86	2.91	3.1
	2.86	2.77	3.05
	2.6	2.9	2.7
	2.7	2.95	2.78	Watch
	2.67	2.81	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.21)	2.87 ↓ (3.1)	2.85 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warta Poznań
34.5%

Draw
32.7%

Korona Kielce
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

28.9%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.8%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warta Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Warta Poznań's form might have worsened.

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Warta Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	81.2%	6.2%

Warta Poznań - Korona Kielce Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Warta will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Korona will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 81.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 62.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grobelny J. (G) 4. Stavropoulos D. 44. Szymonowicz D. 14. Tiru B. 2. Bartkowski J. 21. Kupczak M. (C) 8. Maenpaa N. 22. Matuszewski K. 20. Mezghrani M. 99. Zrelak A. 16. Luis M.	55. Dziekonski X. (G) 2. Zator D. 4. Malarczyk P. (C) 23. Pieczek M. 5. Briceag M. 28. Godinho M. 17. Blanik D. 8. Takac D. 88. Remacle M. 19. Konstantyn J. 9. Shikavka Y.
Substitutes
28. Borowski F. 9. Eppel M. 15. Kopczynski M. 1. Lis A. (G) 47. Prikryl T. 77. Savic S. 7. Szmyt K. 29. Vizinger D. 6. Zurawski M.	25. Bak D. 20. Dalmau A. 1. Forenc K. (G) 71. Fornalczyk M. 10. Forsell P. 27. Krogstad F. 7. Lukowski J. 21. Trejo D. 14. Turek R.
Coaches
Szulczek D.	Kuzera K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Zrelak A. ⚽,
15', Godinho M. ↓, Krogstad F. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Blanik D. ↓, Trejo D. ↑,
56', Konstantyn J. ↓, Fornalczyk M. ↑,
67', Maenpaa N. ↓, Zurawski M. ↑,
67', Luis M. ↓, Szmyt K. ↑,
72', Zrelak A. ↓, Eppel M. ↑,
73', Shikavka Y. ↓, Dalmau A. ↑,
73', Takac D. ↓, Forsell P. ↑,
82', Mezghrani M. ↓, Prikryl T. ↑,
83', Matuszewski K. ↓, Borowski F. ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

Warta is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Korona is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Korona have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Warta: Prikryl T. (Red Card) Przybylko K. (Injury) Szymonowicz D. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Korona: Hofmayster Y. (Red Card) Kwiecien B. (Yellow Cards) Petrov K. (Injury) Podgorski J. (Yellow Cards)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Warta won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Warta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warta Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.04.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Warta Poznań	2:1 ✺
02.04.24	Warta Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.03.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Warta Poznań	0:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.24	Lech Poznań - Warta Poznań	2:0 ✺
11.03.24	Warta Poznań - ŁKS Łódź	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LTWLL
- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.04.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
01.04.24	Widzew Łódź - Korona Kielce	3:1 ✺
17.03.24	Korona Kielce - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
13.03.24	Korona Kielce - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
09.03.24	Korona Kielce - Cracovia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
06.10.23	Korona Kielce - Warta Poznań	1:1
25.02.23	Warta Poznań - Korona Kielce	5:1
15.08.22	Korona Kielce - Warta Poznań	0:1

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