Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 29

Date: 22 April 2024, Monday

Location: Respect Energy Stadium (Grodzisk Wielkopolski)

Referee: Szczerbowicz M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport 5
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Warta Poznań		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.75	Watch
	2.2	2.95	3.5
	2.15	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3.02	3.99
	2.19	3.02	3.99
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.12	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.12	2.9	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.17)	3.01 ↓ (3.1)	3.7 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warta Poznań
43.5%

Draw
31.1%

Stal Mielec
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

28.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warta Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	29.4%	23.5%

Warta Poznań - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Warta will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Warta: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grobelny J. (G) 2. Bartkowski J. 44. Szymonowicz D. 14. Tiru B. 20. Mezghrani M. 21. Kupczak M. (C) 8. Maenpaa N. 22. Matuszewski K. 7. Szmyt K. 99. Zrelak A. 16. Luis M.	1. Kochalski M. (G) 3. Esselink B. 21. Matras M. 55. Pingot M. 27. Jaunzems A. 22. Rafa Santos 16. Guillaumier M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 10. Domanski M. 17. Shkurin I. 11. Wolkowicz K.
Substitutes
28. Borowski F. 9. Eppel M. 15. Kopczynski M. 1. Lis A. (G) 25. Paszkowski J. 47. Prikryl T. 77. Savic S. 29. Vizinger D. 6. Zurawski M.	5. Ehmann M. 7. Gerstenstein L. 31. Gheorghe I. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 6. Leandro 42. Meriluoto K. 37. Stepien M. 86. Strzalek I.
Coaches
Szulczek D.	Kieres K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Matuszewski K. ⚽, Mezghrani M. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Jaunzems A. ⚽,
38', 2 - 1, Zrelak A. ⚽, Maenpaa N. (A),
45+1', 2 - 2, Shkurin I. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
47', 3 - 2, Zrelak A. ⚽,
48', Pingot M. 🟨,
49', 4 - 2, Szymonowicz D. ⚽, Mezghrani M. (A),
55', Jaunzems A. ↓, Gerstenstein L. ↑,
55', Rafa Santos ↓, Gheorghe I. ↑,
62', Szmyt K. ↓, Prikryl T. ↑,
62', Guillaumier M. ↓, Hinokio K. ↑,
62', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
71', 5 - 2, Zrelak A. ⚽, Prikryl T. (A),
76', Zrelak A. ↓, Zurawski M. ↑,
76', Luis M. ↓, Savic S. ↑,
76', Domanski M. ↓, Stepien M. ↑,
90+1', Maenpaa N. ↓, Paszkowski J. ↑,
90+1', Matuszewski K. ↓, Borowski F. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Warta won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Warta will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Warta: Przybylko K. (Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Leandro (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Warta won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Warta won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warta Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.04.24	Warta Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Warta Poznań	2:1 ✺
02.04.24	Warta Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.03.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Warta Poznań	0:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.24	Lech Poznań - Warta Poznań	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLTWL
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.04.24	Stal Mielec - Widzew Łódź	0:0 ✺
06.04.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
01.04.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
15.03.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec	0:0 ✺
10.03.24	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
23.10.23	Stal Mielec - Warta Poznań	0:1
27.05.23	Stal Mielec - Warta Poznań	1:0
11.11.22	Warta Poznań - Stal Mielec	1:1
16.04.22	Stal Mielec - Warta Poznań	0:1
24.10.21	Warta Poznań - Stal Mielec	0:0
10.04.21	Warta Poznań - Stal Mielec	0:0
07.11.20	Stal Mielec - Warta Poznań	0:1

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