Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 30

Date: 28 April 2025, Monday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Zagłębie Lubin		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.44	4	8.5	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.1
	1.45	3.75	7.5	Watch
	1.47	3.9	7.9
	2.03	3.56	3.53	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3
	1.46	4.01	8.19	Watch
	1.45	3.75	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.1)	3.7 ↑ (3.48)	6.15 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
57.4%

Draw
26.6%

Stal Mielec
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

26.8%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

26.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zagłębie Lubin's performance.

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stal Mielec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zagłębie Lubin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stal Mielec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Zagłębie Lubin (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Stal Mielec (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Zagłębie Lubin will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Zagłębie Lubin will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Stal Mielec (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hladun D. (G) 31. Orlikowski I. 25. Nalepa M. 5. Lawniczak A. 16. Corluka J. 26. Kolan J. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 77. Szmyt K. 18. Radwanski A. 21. Pienko T. 90. Kurminowski D.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 21. Matras M. 3. Esselink B. 27. Jaunzems A. 6. Guillaumier M. 20. Knap K. 11. Wolkowicz K. 32. Gerbowski F. 25. Wolsztynski L. 92. Kadzior D.
Substitutes
88. Adamski R. 1. Buric J. (G) 27. Kludka B. 29. Listkowski M. 6. Makowski T. 4. Michalski D. 7. Mroz M. 2. Sochan K. 11. Wozniak A.	9. Assayag R. 33. Bukowski A. 96. Dadok R. 10. Domanski M. 23. Getinger K. 26. Hannola P. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 44. Krykun S. 15. Senger M.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Djurdjevic I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Kolan J. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Kurminowski D. ⚽, Radwanski A. (A),
34', Szmyt K. 🟨,
43', Nalepa M. 🟨,
45+1', Kolan J. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kurminowski D. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
54', Radwanski A. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Jaunzems A. ⚽, Wolsztynski L. (A),
56', Kadzior D. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
56', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
59', Radwanski A. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Dadok R. ⚽, Wolkowicz K. (A),
66', 2 - 2, Madrzyk J. (Own goal),
75', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
75', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Getinger K. ↑,
81', Wlazlo P. ↓, Senger M. ↑,
83', Senger M. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 1.

Recent matches Zagłębie Lubin is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stal Mielec is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Zagłębie Lubin will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Injury) Szafranek W. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Beauguel J. (Inactive)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:16 (average 1.7:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3 ✺
11.04.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1 ✺
31.03.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Chrobry Głogów	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWLL
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.04.25	Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
14.04.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2 ✺
04.04.25	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
15.03.25	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
27.10.24	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2
15.03.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec	0:0
18.09.23	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	4:2
19.05.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec	2:0
04.11.22	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	3:0
08.04.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec	3:1
18.10.21	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	4:2

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