Match Info

A-League - Round 18

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Wellington Phoenix		Auckland FC

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.8	1.76	Watch
	3.35	3.7	1.98	Watch
	3.89	3.95	1.9
	3.79	4.03	1.87	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.91
	3.9	3.81	1.95	Watch
	3.66	3.8	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (4.28)	3.8 ↑ (3.78)	1.89 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix
25.2%

Draw
24.9%

Auckland FC
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

24.4%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

23.7%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Auckland FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland FC than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Auckland FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	23.1%	69.2%

Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Auckland will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Auckland: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Auckland (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 27. Sheridan M. 4. James M. 28. Tuiloma B. 15. Hughes I. 20. Najjarine R. 8. Retre P. 14. Rufer A. (C) 11. Armiento C. 7. Eze I. 25. Nagasawa K.	1. Woud M. (G) 17. Elliot C. 2. Sakai H. (C) 23. Hall D. 15. De Vries F. 3. Girdwood-Reich J. 8. Gallegos L. F. 27. Rogerson L. 7. Howieson C. 21. Randall J. 10. May G.
Substitutes
16. Kartum S. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 18. Kelly-Heald L. 24. Loke T. 10. Mileusnic N. 3. Piper C. 39. Smith J.	35. Bidois J. 22. Brimmer J. 77. Brook L. 45. D'Hotman M. 28. Ferguson B. 12. Hilton J. (G) 46. Mitchell J.
Coaches
Italiano G.	Corica S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
20', Sakai H. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Oluwayemi J. (Own goal),
30', 0 - 2, Randall J. ⚽, De Vries F. (A),
41', 0 - 3, May G. ⚽, Gallegos L. F. (A),
45+2', Eze I. 🟨,
45+3', Girdwood-Reich J. 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 4, Randall J. ⚽, May G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Oluwayemi J. ↓, Kelly-Heald A. ↑,
58', Hughes I. 🟨,
60', Najjarine R. ↓, Piper C. ↑,
71', Sakai H. ↓, Brook L. ↑,
72', Howieson C. ↓, Brimmer J. ↑,
74', 0 - 5, Brook L. ⚽, Randall J. (A),
75', May G. ↓, Bidois J. ↑,
75', Randall J. ↓, Ferguson B. ↑,
77', Nagasawa K. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
78', Retre P. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
82', Gallegos L. F. ↓, Mitchell J. ↑,
87', Kartum S. 🟨,
90', Armiento C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Auckland is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D. (Inactive) Oluwayemi J. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Auckland: Cosgrove S. (Yellow Cards) Sail O. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Wellington: Eze I. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.8:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Auckland FC: 14.55% Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Auckland FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Wellington Phoenix - the odds 4.28 are the expected chance of winning is 21.57%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
13.02.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Wellington Phoenix	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:3 ✺
30.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	2:2 ✺
23.01.26	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	4:1 ✺
18.01.26	Sydney - Wellington Phoenix	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 TLTLW
- Auckland FC
Australian A-League
17.02.26	Sydney - Auckland FC	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Auckland FC - Sydney	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Perth Glory - Auckland FC	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Auckland FC - Central Coast Mariners	2:2 ✺
16.01.26	Melbourne City - Auckland FC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
05.12.25	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	3:1
08.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	1:2
21.02.25	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	6:1
06.12.24	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
02.11.24	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	0:2

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