Match Info
A-League - Round 15Date: 30 January 2026, FridayLocation: Sky Stadium (Wellington)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Hong-kong | M Plus Live, myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 2 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
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Wellington Phoenix |
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Melbourne City |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Wellington Phoenix
27.8% | Draw
26.2% | Melbourne City
46% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wellington Phoenix that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+6.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Melbourne City will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wellington: 38.8% – 86.2%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Melbourne City (1.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Melbourne City (1.56) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +0.25 - Wellington (1.95) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
- AH +0.5 - Melbourne City (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +0.75 - Melbourne City (2.27) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +1 - Melbourne City (2.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.75 - Melbourne City (1.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.5 - Melbourne City (1.33) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne City will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Melbourne City (votes: 18 - 85.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
30.  Kelly-Heald A. (G)
6. Payne T.
28. Tuiloma B.
15. Hughes I.
11.  Armiento C.
20.  Najjarine R.
4.  James M.
14. Rufer A. (C)
25.  Nagasawa K.
8. Retre P.
7.  Eze I.
| 1. Beach P. (G)
36. Shillington H.
22.  Ferreyra G.
26.  Souprayen S.
16. Behich A. (C)
8. Teague R.
19. Schreiber Z.
20. Mazzeo B.
21. Lopane A.
35. Memeti M.
17. Caputo M.
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| Substitutes |
29. Brooke-Smith L.
16.  Kartum S.
18. Kelly-Heald L.
40. McCarron E. (G)
10. Mileusnic N.
3. Piper C.
27. Sheridan M.
| 37. Antoniou P.
4. Bonetig L.
10. Kanamori T.
30.  Kuen A.
40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G)
41. Wong L.
28. Younis M.
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| Coaches |
Italiano G.
| Vidmar A.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 23', 1 - 0, Eze I. ⚽, Armiento C. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 52', 2 - 0, Eze I. ⚽, Nagasawa K. (A),
- 54', Schreiber Z. ↓, Kanamori T. ↑,
- 54', Caputo M. ↓, Kuen A. ↑,
- 54', Mazzeo B. ↓, Younis M. ↑,
- 64', Payne T. ↓, Piper C. ↑,
- 64', Retre P. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
- 72', Lopane A. ↓, Antoniou P. ↑,
- 73', 2 - 1, Younis M. ⚽,
- 75', Eze I. ↓, Mileusnic N. ↑,
- 75', Najjarine R. ↓, Sheridan M. ↑,
- 77', 2 - 2, Memeti M. ⚽,
- 84', Shillington H. ↓, Bonetig L. ↑,
- 89', Nagasawa K. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
- 89', Kanamori T. ↓, Wong L. ↑,
- 90+2', James M. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 8).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 1.Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.Recently, Wellington has had a series of away games.Recently, Melbourne City has had a series of home games. Melbourne City could have a small edge in this match.There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D.
(Inactive)
Oluwayemi J.
(Injury)
Smith J.
(Inactive)
Supyk L.
(Injury)
Walker N.
(Inactive)There will not play in Melbourne City: Atkinson N.
(Yellow Cards)
Durakovic E.
(Inactive)
Kuen A.
(Knee Injury)
Leckie M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Nabbout A.
(Injury)
Ochsenham D.
(Inactive)
Rahmani K.
(Inactive)
Rashani E.
(Muscle Injury)In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 22:38. (average 1.1:1.9).Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.2:1.8).
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Last Results with these Odds
Melbourne City - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 51.4%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian A-League | | | 28.02.25 | Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City | 0:1 | | 03.01.25 | Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix | 2:0 | | 09.03.24 | Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix | 1:0 | | 24.11.23 | Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City | 1:0 | | Australian Cup | | | 27.08.23 | Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix | 3:0 | | Australian A-League | | | 10.04.23 | Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix | 4:1 | | 01.01.23 | Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City | 1:3 |
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