Match Info

A-League - Round 29

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Ironbark Fields (Melbourne)

Referee: Elder D. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App


	Western United		Auckland FC

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.5	2.63	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.4
	2.4	3.6	2.75
	2.54	3.67	2.74
	2.42	3.58	2.8	Watch
	1.95	3.8	3.3
	2.45	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.4	3.6	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.97)	3.63 ↓ (3.95)	2.9 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western United
40.8%

Draw
26.3%

Auckland FC
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

24%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

25.3%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Western United's form might have worsened.

Auckland FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western United than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Western United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auckland FC than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Auckland FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Western United - Auckland FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Western United will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Auckland will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Western United (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Auckland (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Western United (votes: 1 - 50%). Auckland (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Sutton M. (G) 6. Imai T. 4. Donachie J. 30. Leonard D. 17. Garuccio B. (C) 77. Danzaki R. 23. Bozinovski R. 32. Thurgate A. 10. Grimaldi M. 24. Ruhs M. 19. Botic N.	12. Paulsen A. (G) 2. Sakai H. (C) 23. Hall D. 4. Pijnaker N. 15. De Vries F. 27. Rogerson L. 6. Verstraete L. 28. Gallegos L. F. 11. Francois M. 9. Mata M. A. 10. May G.
Substitutes
44. Lauton J. 5. Lavale O. 7. Najjarine R. 29. Shamoon C. A. 37. Vickery L. 70. Vonja M. (G) 20. Walatee A.	22. Brimmer J. 17. Elliot C. 7. Howieson C. 25. Moreno N. 21. Randall J. 5. Smith T. 1. Woud M. (G)
Coaches
Aloisi J.	Corica S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Ruhs M. ⚽, Botic N. (A),
23', 2 - 0, Botic N. ⚽, Garuccio B. (A),
30', De Vries F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Bozinovski R. ↓, Lauton J. ↑,
46', Francois M. ↓, Moreno N. ↑,
46', De Vries F. ↓, Elliot C. ↑,
46', Gallegos L. F. ↓, Brimmer J. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, Thurgate A. ⚽,
57', Ruhs M. 🟨,
62', 3 - 1, Moreno N. ⚽, Sakai H. (A),
70', Mata M. A. ↓, Randall J. ↑,
72', Danzaki R. ↓, Walatee A. ↑,
72', Ruhs M. ↓, Lavale O. ↑,
74', Thurgate A. 🟨,
78', Walatee A. 🟨,
81', Pijnaker N. ↓, Smith T. ↑,
83', Thurgate A. ↓, Shamoon C. A. ↑,
85', Grimaldi M. ↓, Najjarine R. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 2, Randall J. ⚽, Moreno N. (A),
90+6', 4 - 2, Lavale O. ⚽, Najjarine R. (A),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Auckland is Qualified for A~League (Play Offs Semi~finals)

Western United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Auckland is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Western United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Western United is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Auckland: Bidois J. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Western United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Western United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western United
Australian A-League
27.04.25	Western United - Sydney	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	Brisbane Roar - Western United	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Western United	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Western United - Perth Glory	3:1 ✺
16.03.25	Newcastle Jets - Western United	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLWW
- Auckland FC
Australian A-League
27.04.25	Auckland FC - Perth Glory	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Melbourne Victory - Auckland FC	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Sydney - Auckland FC	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Auckland FC - Western Sydney Wanderers	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Brisbane Roar - Auckland FC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
15.02.25	Western United - Auckland FC	0:2
20.12.24	Auckland FC - Western United	0:4

Western United - Auckland FC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide