Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 31

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday


	Wimborne Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.5	2.05
	2.76	3.97	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (4.77)	3.74 ↓ (4.05)	2.12 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wimborne Town
32.5%

Draw
24.4%

Merthyr Town
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

22.5%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

22.2%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wimborne Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wimborne Town's performance.

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wimborne Town than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wimborne Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+4', 0 - 1, Cox C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 1 - 1, Morgan ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Wimborne won 0.

Recent matches Wimborne is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Merthyr is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Merthyr could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Wimborne won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6:14 (average 0.9:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Wimborne won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:1 (average 1.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wimborne Town
English Southern League South Division
04.02.25	Hanwell Town - Wimborne Town	2:2 ✺
01.02.25	Wimborne Town - Bracknell Town	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Tiverton Town - Wimborne Town	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Taunton Town - Wimborne Town	2:2 ✺
11.01.25	Wimborne Town - Marlow	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLLTW
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
08.02.25	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	2:2 ✺
04.02.25	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Marlow - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Merthyr Town - Taunton Town	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
28.09.24	Merthyr Town - Wimborne Town	6:0
12.03.22	Merthyr Town - Wimborne Town	2:0
26.10.21	Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town	1:1
25.02.20	Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town	0:0
05.10.19	Merthyr Town - Wimborne Town	3:1
12.01.19	Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town	4:0
24.11.18	Merthyr Town - Wimborne Town	2:0

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