Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 13

Date: 22 October 2024, Tuesday


	Winchester City		Gloucester City

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	1.95
	3.2	3.6	1.97
	3.15	3.8	1.99
	3.29	3.79	2.01
	3.2	3.52	1.99
	3.2	3.6	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↓ (3.98)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)	1.98 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Winchester City
28.7%

Draw
25.2%

Gloucester City
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

25.2%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

24.7%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Winchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Winchester City's performance.

Gloucester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gloucester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Winchester City than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Winchester City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gloucester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Winchester City - Gloucester City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Smalley B. ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, Hill I. ⚽,
16', 2 - 1, Chalwell L. ⚽,
29', 2 - 2, Baidoo K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
67', 2 - 3, Baidoo K. ⚽,
70', 2 - 4, Hanks J. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Recent matches Winchester is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gloucester in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Winchester could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Winchester have a series of home games.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Winchester City
English Southern League South Division
19.10.24	Winchester City - Walton & Hersham	2:1 ✺
15.10.24	Swindon Supermarine - Winchester City	2:0 ✺
12.10.24	Winchester City - Hungerford Town	2:2 ✺
08.10.24	Winchester City - Poole Town	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Winchester City - Swindon Supermarine	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTTW
- Gloucester City
English Southern League South Division
19.10.24	Totton - Gloucester City	1:1 ✺
15.10.24	Gloucester City - Frome Town	2:0 ✺
12.10.24	Gloucester City - Havant & Waterlooville	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Gloucester City - Wimborne Town	3:2 penalties ✺
English Southern League South Division
28.09.24	Tiverton Town - Gloucester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWWWW

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